Formerly NE North Dakota, now NW MN | That sure sounds ominous. That article had some other interesting stuff in it too.
So far today, I've had to google "Deacon Blues" and "casus belli". Not even 10am. Looks like it's going to be an educational day.
Sounds like natural gas market is going to look a lot like the international wheat market. That'll be an interesting shift.
article says something to the effect of- "2016 will be the year when things shift to Capital driving economics, instead of economics driving capital". IMHO that's the best description of what we're seeing in ag. as well. It doesn't necessarily have to look like the mid-80s. It might, but it just as easily might not. What is and will be different though, is just what it says in that quote, capital availability is going to influence economic decisions rather than the other way around. There are guys out there sitting on moldy piles of cash who will still have the ability to bid for land/equipment everything else, but I think the reality for everyone will be a contraction of credit across all of ag.
As for price volatility, I wasn't really anticipating much more volatility in wheat, but now today chicago's down 14 at the moment, so shows what I know. I expect soybeans to continue to be the most volatile both on a nominal and a percentage value. International production dynamics just kinda dictate that IMHO.
2016 sleeper- snap back la nina, landing right during tasseling time, making corn by far the most volatile. |
How much volatility will we get this year? Price range?
