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W Texas | The Saudis will never allow the Iranians to get the bomb without an outright war, and the Nobel Peace Prize recipient in Chief has hatched a plan that forces the Saudis hand (not his intent, but the end result nevertheless). Iran will get the bomb if it is left to the US to prevent, and the Saudis fully realize this.
The SHTF over there when the Saudi's executed a Shiite cleric. Saudi embassy in Tehran is now in flames and the Saudis have stated the Iranians did nothing to protect it. They just ended diplomatic relations and have asked the Iranian diplomatic mission to exit pronto.
Here is the issue: the Saudis HAD to know what would happen when they beheaded this guy. The Saudis have been discussing allowing the Israelis to air raid the Iranians for a long time. The new Saudi Defense Minister is a big time hawk and I am guessing is looking for a scenario where the Israelis can be allowed to execute their plan. In other words, he is looking for a Casus Belli. Apparently, the Iranians are eager to comply, with the regime stating publicly today that the beheading would "wipe the House of Saud from the pages of history."
In short, it looks like "IT'S ON LIKE DONKEY KONG!" I think they are both angling for war. The Iranians can't possibly be ignorant of the Saudis' ulterior motive with the Israelis, but they have more to gain and have Russia in their corner, so perhaps they want to get bombed, like FDR wanted Pearl Harbor to get bombed? In other words, it appears that both parties are looking for a Casus Belli!
I have stated I am bearish long term on oil (the next generation or so), unless there is an outbreak of wider conflict in the ME that threatens production. This looks like such a scenario. They are also both in a position to prevent commercial utilization of the Persian Gulf (a Mexican standoff.)
Short term, oil is going up and it will take softs with it.
Edited by jimsonweed 1/3/2016 21:52
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Middle East heating up. Bullish oil
