KevinM - 1/2/2016 15:02
Sat - 1/2/2016 11:24 Adding some things after reading the post above Maize and I preach "Target Orders", there pretty simple, apply them and KEEPING them in place with the sumers rain rally is the hard part. I see NO reason at this time to have orders in place for 2017 in this falling/down/trending market but that's just me. Kevin way is very in depth and do not do it, more just "wing it" I'm not the spread sheet guy ! ! ! Sorry SWKS I farmer many years when $50-100 profits were way more then a pipe line dream. On MY STO farm (yes I do have one for really) east of Buxton ND half ways between the Red River and I-29. I have made some comments over the years in here and AW to "throw off" my location a tad :o) On MY farm Crop Insurance is one file***** Marketing is ANOTHER***** I could care less what the RMA spring price is when it comes to marketing, it IS NOT and WILL NEVER be in any way shape or form ANY KIND of "A Market Price Floor"********** Back to target order this past summer,,,,, this is where to tough part comes in comes, TUNE OUT much of the info you hear/see/read as to how BULLISH IT WAS. MANY. Much info you here is from someone looking for rating (TV AND RADIO ratings, RATINGS = EQUALS ADVERTISING DOLLARS looking for YOUR business and looking to profit from YOUR marketing. Now this may or may not tick off some/few and not in NAT but I'm usually on someone poop list anyways ! ! ! OK that was a little blunt yes, I do not "beat around the bush" I'm NOT looking for you biz as a broker, I'm NOT looking for your biz as in selling a marketing service*** NOW,,, if you have duck/geese/pigs someplace warm in the winter months, want some personally help or a small little "Risk Management Meeting" I have guns/ammo/car, love a good road trip seeing different country, seeing and learning how other areas do things. BEER, RIBEYE'S crop tour/farm and BS is fun***** Last winter got to see alot of that prime north I-80 stuff, thought it would be flat and really got a surprise with all the terracing in NW/Western Iowa, those "hills" were really fun about 90ish for a flatlander. Sorry Kevin, right now if one is sitting with a bunch of UN-priced grains, COP mean nothing, remember I am different. To the traders in Chicago or wherever,,,,, IT MEANS ABSOLUTE NOTHING***** They could care less if your COP is 1.97 or 4.97 ZCZ,,, THEY DON'T CARE***** SO EVERY marketing meeting I've been to, I hear "known your COP of YOUR farm"...... Traders could care less what we hear. Again sorry for the blunt and do not mean to rude but it is what it is...... What traders/investors in/spec money of, ARE looking at and HAVE BEEN looking at is, increases in world wide stock of grains the last 3 years. This goes double with UN-REAL CHEAP ocean freight and the currencies exchanges.
So since my way is too much trouble for you, you are going to "teach your students" not to worry about COP???? Just keep doing whatever you are doing even if you are losing money doing it???
I will agree that unpriced grain now in the bin is water under the bridge but what about knowing your COP so that you can recognize an opportunity for profit/breakeven/minimize loss. Sometimes it is easier to know where price is not likely going than where it is going.
I will also agree that traders don't give a rat's patoot what your individual COP is but they do pay attention to average COP. So if you can be below that average COP you are in a better situation than someone at the upper end. And if you are at the upper end then you had better be actively looking for ways to get to below average.
You advocate target orders but how do you decide where to place them? As Ray says "do you know what you want or is it just more?". If you have a decent handle on where you can make money you can feel more confident in pulling the trigger on a sale. And I thought that is what the OP was asking about??? I think the OP was telling us that "winging it" was not getting him where he wanted/needed to be???
Sat, you enjoy markets/marketing and you most likely spend much of your time reading and thinking about it therefore you may have a better handle on where price may or may not go within a given time period. But I can tell you that most folks that are reading here are not as engaged and need a different method to feel comfortable with/have confidence in a decision to sell their crops. I also think that it depends on size. A smaller farmer may not need a spreadsheet-maybe back of the envelope is good enough. But if a guy is farming several thousand acres it gets harder to keep all of that front and center, so yeah, a spreadsheet helps. And it really doesn't take that much time once you get it built to suit.
Cheers.
Grain Marketing questions, anyone using Al Kluis?
