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Census vs FAS Wheat exports.
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JonSCKs
Posted 12/25/2015 16:36 (#4986485 - in reply to #4986427)
Subject: They revise the FAS numbers later..


hmmm.. so they must go back into the FAS numbers and revise them later.. I started to post the difference of the Census grain numbers vs the FAS.. but the FAS numbers come into alignment from 2012/13 on back.. they still need to bring the FAS numbers Up.. by 48 myn bushels for 2013/14 and "Uno" for 2014/15..

hmmm.

I wondered how they did that.. Anywho.. the Census numbers are higher.. pretty much across the board.. but we will not know by how much until Census prints.. as noted they are a couple months behind.. and it will include the Flour and Products also.

So it's still reasonable to expect the WASDE export numbers to move higher by about 50 to 60 myn bushels since..

a) we're on pace..

b) it will include Flour exports.

c) as well as product exports.

.. which amounts to about 23 myn bushels plus whatever difference between Census and FAS is on Grain exports.. which can be around 40 myn bushels.. hence the 60'ish myn bushel gain illustrated above.  For Instance the 13/14 difference in Grain Census vs FAS was 48 myn bushels plus the 21 myn in Flour and Product = 69 myn bushel difference.. for 14/15 it was 1 myn grain plus 22 F & P = 23... so it does bounce around a bit.

Here's where we are by country through 11/26/15.. 

Table 9--Wheat:  U.S. exports, Census and export sales comparison (1,000 metric tons)  
  2013/14  2014/15  2015/16 (as of 11/26/15)  
Importing     Out-  
country     Shipments standingTotal 
         Data  Export   Export      Export  
      source Census 1/  sales 2/  Census 1/  sales 2/               sales 2/        
         
Country:        
China4,2434,273     3313324554459 
Japan2,7753,079    3,0543,1211,1142861,401 
Mexico3,1043,095     2,8422,7211,1373321,469 
Nigeria2,7002,690   1,7901,9048522691,121 
Philippines1,9632,163    2,3762,3381,0574731,530 
Korean Rep.1,3311,313    1,1811,148504456960 
Egypt490321    156387909 
Taiwan982980    9831,00251492606 
Indonesia1,0411,142    69164314846193 
Venezuela603696    45743810610116 
European Union691636    65872462076695 
Total grain31,43031,663    22,61022,6229,9574,52214,480 
Total (including        
  products)32,00131,745    23,24922,6939,9984,55014,549 
USDA forecast 30,113 22,622    
  of Census1,1761,10685483436716721,772 
 69 20     
         
1 Source:  U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau    
2 Source:  USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Export Sales.    


Edited by JonSCKs 12/25/2015 18:35
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