| hmmm.. so they must go back into the FAS numbers and revise them later.. I started to post the difference of the Census grain numbers vs the FAS.. but the FAS numbers come into alignment from 2012/13 on back.. they still need to bring the FAS numbers Up.. by 48 myn bushels for 2013/14 and "Uno" for 2014/15.. hmmm. I wondered how they did that.. Anywho.. the Census numbers are higher.. pretty much across the board.. but we will not know by how much until Census prints.. as noted they are a couple months behind.. and it will include the Flour and Products also. So it's still reasonable to expect the WASDE export numbers to move higher by about 50 to 60 myn bushels since.. a) we're on pace.. b) it will include Flour exports. c) as well as product exports. .. which amounts to about 23 myn bushels plus whatever difference between Census and FAS is on Grain exports.. which can be around 40 myn bushels.. hence the 60'ish myn bushel gain illustrated above. For Instance the 13/14 difference in Grain Census vs FAS was 48 myn bushels plus the 21 myn in Flour and Product = 69 myn bushel difference.. for 14/15 it was 1 myn grain plus 22 F & P = 23... so it does bounce around a bit. Here's where we are by country through 11/26/15.. Table 9--Wheat: U.S. exports, Census and export sales comparison (1,000 metric tons) | | | | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 (as of 11/26/15) | | Importing | | | | | | Out- | | | country | | | | | Shipments | standing | Total | | Data | | Export | | Export | Export | | source | Census 1/ | sales 2/ | Census 1/ | sales 2/ | sales 2/ | | | | | | | | | | | Country: | | | | | | | | | China | 4,243 | 4,273 | 331 | 332 | 455 | 4 | 459 | | Japan | 2,775 | 3,079 | 3,054 | 3,121 | 1,114 | 286 | 1,401 | | Mexico | 3,104 | 3,095 | 2,842 | 2,721 | 1,137 | 332 | 1,469 | | Nigeria | 2,700 | 2,690 | 1,790 | 1,904 | 852 | 269 | 1,121 | | Philippines | 1,963 | 2,163 | 2,376 | 2,338 | 1,057 | 473 | 1,530 | | Korean Rep. | 1,331 | 1,313 | 1,181 | 1,148 | 504 | 456 | 960 | | Egypt | 490 | 321 | 156 | 387 | 9 | 0 | 9 | | Taiwan | 982 | 980 | 983 | 1,002 | 514 | 92 | 606 | | Indonesia | 1,041 | 1,142 | 691 | 643 | 148 | 46 | 193 | | Venezuela | 603 | 696 | 457 | 438 | 106 | 10 | 116 | | European Union | 691 | 636 | 658 | 724 | 620 | 76 | 695 | | Total grain | 31,430 | 31,663 | 22,610 | 22,622 | 9,957 | 4,522 | 14,480 | | Total (including | | | | | | | | | products) | 32,001 | 31,745 | 23,249 | 22,693 | 9,998 | 4,550 | 14,549 | | USDA forecast | | 30,113 | | 22,622 | | | | | of Census | 1,176 | 1,106 | 854 | 834 | 367 | 167 | 21,772 | | | 69 | | 20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau | | | | | 2 Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Export Sales. | | | | |
Edited by JonSCKs 12/25/2015 18:35
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