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ethanol and the corn and cattle markets
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white shadow
Posted 12/15/2015 14:38 (#4961673 - in reply to #4960268)
Subject: RE: ethanol and the corn and cattle markets



East Central South Dakota

How much of the value of corn today can be attributed to ethanol demand?

 

We raised either side of 9 billion bushels of corn before the expansion in the ethanol industry and exported around 2 billion or less ( about the same as today).  We currently raise around 13 billion bushels of corn.  The expansion in ethanol increased corn demand by a little over 3 billion bushels. The increase in pricesignal encouraged over supply by the corn producers.  Ethanol produced one billion bushels of extra supply plus the 1 billion bushels of DDG's (3 billion x .33) that find its way back into the feed market.  The demand for corn for ethanol increased supply by more than the demand used----so the value of corn today is cheaper than would be without ethanol.

 

 

 What happens to backgrounding breakevens and feeding breakevens if ddg were not available?

 

In my back yard wet distillers is about making poor feedstuffs more palatable as much as it is feed value----there lies its true economic value.  You can mix wet distillers with some pretty rough hay feed and the cows will run over each other to get at it.  The ethanol industry has learned how to take a lot out of the ddg's, so for the hog and chicken guys I believe it is fair to say DDG's is not as good of a replacement for soymeal---it has to be discounted to soymeal to work.

How much is the blenders credit on a gallon of ethanol?

 

The blenders credit was the big mistake in the ethanol expansion in my opinion.  That subsidy went to the guys that splashed the ethanol (oil industry) to build the infrastructure to bring the blending of ethanol into the industry.  They pocketed the money and used it to fight the industry rather than develop the infrastructure.  It should have gone to the producer of ethanol not the blender.  We tried to buy shelf space and I don't know if it worked---JMHO

 

What happens to agriculture-- both grain farmers and cattle feeders if ethanol subsidies are removed?

First of all, I hate it when people compare grain and livestock as two separate entities.  We are all Agriculturalists that are intertwined and dependent upon each other.  Opponents have long used this divide and conquer strategy with agriculture.  As a grain producer I totally support the livestock industry and the challenges they face in todays markets and concentration of power.  Ethanol is the cheapest octane liquid fuel on the planet.  It is renewable and environmentally friendly.  Ethanol has also led to an over supplied corn market.  If you take demand out of an already over supplied market, I think your question becomes rhetorical in a hurry.  The over supply of the corn market makes messing with the RFS very risky-----the whole process of backing away from the RFS is full of risk with little or no reward.  Big oil fought electricity to the bitter end--till it became engrained in the infrastructure----so it is with ethanol, we have to wait till it is engrained in the infrastructure.  Corn supply with just the yearly increase in trend yield keeps growing.  We better continue growing demand .  Haven't even talked increased world acreage on corn supply

 

 

 

 

 

 

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