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Ethanol update
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JonSCKs
Posted 12/12/2015 22:44 (#4955895 - in reply to #4955731)
Subject: I agree.


I prefer to think is a healthy tit for tat between two fellas that know each other pretty well..

I agree.. Two sides to every story.  It's a tough environment.. It's tough to make a dime right now.

Prices are down.. producers are grumpy.. so we're storing.. processor's do not have as much coming across their scales as they would like.. at price levels they want.. so they got to bid up.  Even though it was a pretty big crop because of this battle there's not as much carry.. so even Maize doesn't like that.  Input suppliers.. etc..

The bummer is that we have been successful.  We've built the industry.. busted out the crops.. and as a result.. flooded the markets.

And for this.. we are punished.

The spot market price for Crude in North Dakota is around $28.  (about $7 under WTI)  It takes a bunch of bbls to pay for a multi million dollar per well drilling program at that level... and even though it's different.. it's pretty much the same for everyone else in the commodity world right now..

Oh well.. this too shall pass.

Here's what needs to happen..

We need to place our drilling program in hot idle.. use the cheap imports while we have them.  At a myn bbls per day.. with known reserves in the Bakken.. that field would last 20 years pumping at this rate.  We'll need that crude someday in the Future.. MORE than we need it right now..  It's the bank account.

We need to reform the RFS.. Cellulosic was meant for a world of $100 crude.. not $35.. there really is no need to build that out any further now.

There are parts of the world that need Cleaner Air.. Beijing for one..  between their surplus and ours.. we could help them fix their air quality which LITERALLY would save lives.. and allow people a better.. as well as Longer quality of life.  Ditto India.. etc.

We need to rebalance US Ag.. maybe we need to crack open the CRP a little more?

Cheap grain.. just leads to cheap everything else.. cattle.. hogs..etc.

The advanced 10 year baseline just came out last week  
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/index.htm )

It basically says we have returned to balance.. that prices have stabilized..  (??)

I believe in free enterprise.. but there's no need to drive every last drop of profitability out of the system.  Here in the southern plains we could buy back some water rights.. convert some acres back to dryland.. extend the bank.. (same as Bakken)  The aquifer is recharged by rain.. for an acre that is pumped at 15" if the annual recharge is 3".. then you need that acre plus 4 others NOT pumped to obtain long term sustainability.. We know that.. and that's what we need to get to.
  
We can raise enough to provide for the expected needs.. without going broke doing it.

etc and so forth. 

Low energy prices will aid in South American production.. they got to be a part of a managed solution.

well anyway.. one can always dream..

Yal stop in some time Ray.. It would be good to see ya again.

We could fix this.. if we choose to do it. 

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