That table was built around looking at Gasoline demand.. specifically the growth in consumption given the price break. The first one was done right before the EPA announcement which upped the domestic target.. after cutting it. There have been some PRETTY BIG revisions to the ethanol grind in the WASDE.. which.. ??? Is WASDE DONE changing THOSE numbers.. or did they just park error there to WAIT for more information...??? (wink wink.. like we know they do..)
I got what I thunked was WASDE numbers labeled as such but they are NOT.. I built that table out of a couple different reports.. may have come from the RFA site..?? golly can't recall now.. So I left that column alone and added the New WASDE numbers.. for CORN + Sorghum.. specifically the Food, Seed and Industrial part of Domestic for Sorghum.. which will overstate it a little.. but it's probably 85%+ but IT DOES CHANGE.. quite a bit.. virtually nil last year.. going back to mostly ethanol.. this year. So I'll post both so you can see..
So Total ethanol is the combined domestic plus exports.. Then the percentage of domestic ethanol blended into gasoline.. then the total ethanol converted to a bushel grind for the CALENDAR year.. at 2.75.. then my mystery source (I'll find it.. should have sourced it..) Then the WASDE Corn ethanol number (assuming I got the right numbers after they were revised..?? argh..) then the Sorghum Food Seed & Industrial number (assuming right AFTER revisions.. ??)
As you can see 2011 and 2012 do not match.. ethanol vs WASDE grind.. which COULD be because of ethanol stocks used.. and/or RINS.. (another complicating factor..) and I thunk I remember them going back in and revising the Grind.. "okay so we fed more.. exported some..etc.. didn't raise as much.. etc.. " But now we're firing on all cylinders..
I actually upped the conversion some to 2.78 and adjust for the teeny tiny cellulosic 0.007% of capacity which now is..?? (or is not..??) running.. and to complicate this even more.. some of the reported cellulosic plants grind grain.. (so is it even that high?) Could be...??
So there's still a LOT of assumptions in all of this.. but you get the idea..
| | | | | | | | Total | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Gasoline supplied | | | | Ethanol | | ethanol | corn bu. Byn | | | | | Plant Capacity | | | | | myn bbls | byn gallons | domestic | byn gallons | percentage | @ 2.75 | ??? Source | WASDE | | | | | Conversion | | | | per year | per year | % chng | | exports | per year | % chng | domestic | | 9/1/xx | | 9/1/xx | | % chng | | | | | | | 2001 | 3143 | 132.01 | | | | 1.77 | | 1.34% | 0.64 | | Corn | Sorghum | Total | | | | 2.75 | | | | 2002 | 3229 | 135.62 | 2.74% | | | 2.14 | 21.25% | 1.58% | 0.78 | | | | | | | | 2.75 | | | | 2003 | 3261 | 136.96 | 0.99% | | | 2.81 | 31.31% | 2.05% | 1.02 | | | | | | | | 2.75 | | | | 2004 | 3333 | 139.99 | 2.21% | | | 3.40 | 21.00% | 2.43% | 1.24 | | | | | | | | 2.75 | | | | 2005 | 3343 | 140.41 | 0.30% | | | 3.90 | 14.71% | 2.78% | 1.42 | | | | | | | | 2.75 | | | | 2006 | 3377 | 141.83 | 1.02% | | | 4.88 | 25.13% | 3.44% | 1.77 | 1.6 | | | | | | | 2.75 | | | | 2007 | 3389 | 142.34 | 0.36% | | | 6.52 | 33.61% | 4.58% | 2.37 | 2.12 | 3.049 | 0.035 | 3.084 | | | | 2.75 | | | | 2008 | 3290 | 138.18 | -2.92% | | | 9.31 | 42.79% | 6.74% | 3.39 | 3.05 | 3.677 | 0.095 | 3.772 | 22.56% | | | 2.75 | | | | 2009 | 3284 | 137.93 | -0.18% | | | 10.94 | 17.51% | 7.93% | 3.98 | 3.71 | 4.591 | 0.090 | 4.681 | 24.72% | | | 2.75 | | | | 2010 | 3282 | 137.84 | -0.06% | 12.902 | 0.398 | 13.30 | 21.57% | 9.36% | 4.84 | 4.59 | 5.021 | 0.085 | 5.106 | 9.26% | | | 2.75 | | | | 2011 | 3195 | 134.19 | -2.65% | 12.735 | 1.195 | 13.93 | 4.74% | 9.49% | 5.07 | 5.02 | 4.557 | 0.085 | 4.642 | -9.24% | | | 2.75 | % grain | | | 2012 | 3178 | 133.48 | -0.53% | 12.479 | 0.741 | 13.22 | -5.10% | 9.35% | 4.81 | 5 | 4.333 | 0.095 | 4.428 | -4.70% | | | 2.75 | | | | 2013 | 3228 | 135.58 | 1.57% | 12.671 | 0.619 | 13.29 | 0.53% | 9.35% | 4.83 | 4.64 | 5.124 | 0.070 | 5.194 | 17.68% | | | 2.75 | 1 | | | 2014 | 3256 | 136.75 | 0.87% | 13.454 | 0.846 | 14.30 | 7.60% | 9.84% | 5.20 | 5.12 | 5.209 | 0.015 | 5.224 | 0.59% | | | 2.75 | 1 | | | 2015 | 3336 | 140.11 | 2.46% | 13.9 | 0.865 | 14.77 | 3.25% | 9.92% | 5.33 | 5.23 | 5.200 | 0.100 | 5.300 | 1.46% | | 95.26% | 2.77 | 0.993 | | | 2016 | Proj. ?? | 142.80 | 1.92% | 14.20 | 1.000 | 15.20 | 2.95% | 9.94% | 5.49 | 5.28 | | | | | | 98.06% | 2.77 | 0.993 | | | 2017 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2.16% | 15.61% | 2.95% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Grain | Other | Total | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | plants | 214 | 15.5 | | 95.26% | 15.356 | 0.144 | | | | 0.94% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1001.70 | 9.39 | 1011.09 | bbls/day | k bbl/day capacity | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | fwiw.
argh.. doing this on laptop.. so now you can't even see it.. using color to bring out columns.. "always something."
Edited by JonSCKs 12/10/2015 10:06
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Ethanol update
