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S Illinois | A mix is likely the best, however consistency is the name of the game. Selling ag commodities in their normal periods of strengths (Apr-May, summer dryness), and buying in weak periods(Aug, Oct) has consistently proved to be a winning strategy. As commodity producers, the most successful also usually have a very low per unit production cost. This is where the money is made. Trying to beat the market consistently is a losing proposition especially when one considers a trader that is correct on 60% of their trades is considered very successful.
When one is consistently bearish, it would seem like they need to be selling all of the time(and therefore could be sold years out already) and bullish buying all of the time neither of which are correct. If someone is truly bearish then they should have been selling multiple years in Oct last year at $3.20 and would have missed this past summer run up due to the fact that they would have nothing left to sell. | |
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Being Bearish or Bullish, which is more profitable?
