Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | I know it isn't a good strategy to depend on a crop failure to save you but despite SAT's insistence that Brazil is getting good rain the evidence says otherwise. Below is older 2012 map of soybean production in Brazil by region. You can see that Mato Grosso had the largest production and this has only increased since then. Sure that is a lot of production in southern Brazil but at that time the northern tier accounted for more than 30 MMT compared with 25 MMT in the south. They are predicting somewhere in the area of 80 million acres this coming year. Well over half the coming year's production must come from the northern tier.
Now we know that a strong El Nino makes northern Brazil dry, sometimes very dry and we are in the midst of a very strong El Nino now. If you compare the most recent precip anomoly maps with the corresponding production areas you can get a sense of the situation. The 180 & 30 precip. tables for the northwest area of Mato Grosso are typical of the whole region. There are reports that producers there are now planting into dry dirt and hoping for rain. So when they say 70% planted that doesn't mean 70% emerged.
The thing you need to remember about farming in the tropics is that it is hot there (personal experience) and the evaporation rate is alway high. It takes more than a occasional shower to make a crop.
Do I know for sure they will have a drought, NO! But the probability is pretty high.
 (Soybean_Production2012_State_Brazil_Geo-page-001.jpg)
 (p.15day.figb.gif)
 (northwest mato grosso precip 180 day precip..gif)
 (northwest mato grosso precip 30 days.gif)
Attachments
----------------
 Soybean_Production2012_State_Brazil_Geo-page-001.jpg (158KB - 44 downloads)
p.15day.figb.gif (85KB - 37 downloads)
northwest mato grosso precip 180 day precip..gif (63KB - 34 downloads)
northwest mato grosso precip 30 days.gif (66KB - 31 downloads)
|
My 2016 is looking ugly
