I'll update all in one thread here.  We're starting to see some places with Sorghum basis premium to corn at a couple of the shuttle loaders.. but there's still a decent chunk of sorghum.. mostly in piles.  I skimmed through the thread below about basically not losing much to spoilage.. well.. "that depends"  If things go well.. get it tarped.. doesn't rain much.. etc.. things can go well.  I don't know of any tarped sorghum piles out here.. since the elevators are pretty full most of the sorghum had to go outside.

The guys with experience that I talk to want to pile on dirt.. you want the moisture to go THROUGH the pile.. However, some locations still pile on concrete or asphalt.. for ease of cleanup...??  However, some of those piles are already turning green at the base.. "ought oh" but again most is on dirt so.. no big yet..  They say that sorghum will seal.. much better than corn or wheat.. but I'm wondering what those piles out in the Tx panhandle that got the big rains a few weeks back are gonna be looking like soon...???

Now regarding exports.. from below..

 This is my export table.. which needs cleaning up but you got the year.. (this is wheat on the left.. Sorghum on right) the total Shipped in mmt's.. the total shipped as of the date.. (in this case the week of 11/12/15) The total sold.. and then the difference.. aka the additional sold and shipped to balance out the numbers.. which I then sum and average.. to obtain This week's projections.

In the Case of Wheat.. we've shipped 9.3 mmt's.. which lags.. however we've also sold an additional 4.5 mmt's for a total of 13.8 mmt's.  The WASDE is at 21.8 mmt's more or.. we need to do another 8 mmt's.. Historically in THIS data set we've done 9 mmt's.. thus we're ACTUALLY AHEAD of the pace NEEDED to hit 800 myn bushels in exports by an excess of 37 myn bushels.  Who'd of thunk that?  "US wheat is not competitive yada yada yada.."

Furthermore, El Nino year's can be challenging for some competitors.. Auzzie has issues.. and I believe the Black Sea region is also severly behind on 2016 crop conditions and stand establishment.. like acreage down..20..25%  If I heard correctly..???  Plus Brazil is going to need some milling quality wheaties.. and does Egypt ever come in...??

Sat the funds ARE SHORT wheaties.. if not record certainly in a BIG way..  We got our bins sealed.. finished the paperwork on a CCC loan this week.. and are running the fans to chill it for LONG TERM STORAGE.  I can outlast the short funds... btdt... so we'll just sit on it.


Now the Sorghum side.. 2.26 mmt's already shipped.. highest in dataset.. 2.03 additional sold.. 3 rd highest.. for a total of 4.29 mmts.. 2nd highest.. higher than last year.. and here's the rub.. Last year was Unique.. we sold and shipped another 4.56 mmt's.. and it was at PREMIUM to CORN VALUES.. THIS YEAR.. there's no where NEAR the premium.. and yet the WASDE has things dialed down to 8.25 mmt's.. If you tack on what we did LAST year to where we are you would exceed the WASDE by 0.6 mmts.. 25'ish myn bushels..  Now out in Feedlot country sorhum is cheaper than corn.. and it's probably buyin it's way into the feedbunk.. so.. even though we raised a bigger crop this year.. we're chewing through it.. also the WASDE upped the ethanol grind.. which some plants are running mostly sorghum.. 2/3rd's to 3/4 of the grind...  So.. it's only a matter of time before Sorghum basis starts to pop..

Which is why I've got a CCC loan on our production there also..

Got my weather guru update.. short notes are we're in El Nino.. everyone expects wet to continue in Southern Plains.. but we're due for a change.. the BIG picture drivers could be..  bad.. as early as spring/summer of 2016...  We might squeeze in one more big crop (my guess) though before we go back to a 2011/2012 condition.. but ???  It just depends on the ENSO cycle now..  how quickly that dies.. He was amazed at how strong this current one is.. but we're getting late in the game for it to continue.. if it flips HARD.. to La Nina.. that would be bad..

so...??? 

Coops need more storage.. by the time they get them built we could be in the short crop years...???

In the "fill the peaks.. spread out the valley's" school of marketing.. we're defintely in the Valley.. I don't want to Forward Contract at the bottom..  so just need to be patient.  We'll get our opportunities.. I sealed everything under a CCC.. I'm good to go now till August of 2016.. may look at expanding more storage depending upon what conditions look like going forward..

later.