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NCND | I was just in the elevator talking basis. We gained a nickel again so we are now to -60. I told him when we hit -40 your getting half my Htas. I think the trucks may get fired up by Christmas. I'd be solidly above 6$ cash which works as planned.
I rolled all my hta for about 5cents a month. If I need to roll back at 3 to capture basis it would be just fine by me. We'll see how it goes.
im not uber bullish or anything but trend has been friend in basis thus far. From -105 to -60 is a good start. I think guys cash flowed with the beans and other crops now sitting tight in wheat. My guess.
I think (know from reading crop talk)that Kansas wheat crop got a big rain snow that I'm waiting to here reported in in the market section but haven't seen it yet. That should have been more bearish for prices possibly but we are holding front month lows on kc still. Given my hedges I wish we'd go down and check them out as it would translate to better basis here and I could get moving.
Only thing I'm worried about is a 50 cent rally that takes out the basis we've added back in. Fwiw
After all that hall I am taking the entire cookie plate if it comes around on basis. These spring wheat deals the last few years have been hard and fast and if you missed them you went from a decent profit to really ugly negative territory.
Been busy outside working hall so haven't been watching spreads much. I do see I rolled for +28 a sept 661 to March for 689 net now dec and March are +1. Maybe I'll take that -60???:).
Looks like it's been the ole buy the front month rally to try and free up some stuff.
My question to you is should I roll from March to May for +10 then roll back when that goes even(if it goes) or does the basis do all its work before then?
Edited by vailcat 11/19/2015 15:04
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So, someone curb my enthusiasm- HRSW
