A qualified yes.. I believe so..  but just because it's locked and loaded.. does not mean that it's gonna go off..

aka NOT 100% correlation..

Some year's the ONI falls and we get the drought of 1988.. others the ONI equally falls and we don't... late 90's..

Why?

idk..

I thunk the weather... climate.. is probably a little more complex than what we understand.. including my whole AMO/PDO thingy.. it could get trumped by something else..???

.. or not...???

Is Solar driving it?  makes sense... does the Sun have a hic-up every now and then...??  Or is it steady like a Clock.. every 62 years...???

lol.. "yal we got this sucker figured out.."  

lol... ???

In 2009 I raised 180 bu DRYLAND corn (on one field..)... in 2011 I averaged 1 bu across the dryland farm..  "bummer."