I'll keep this simple, If we look at long term trends... a pattern emerges concerning the AMO and the PDO as well as the longer term consequences that may shape weather on a large enough scale to make a difference. What long term trends am I looking at??. Primarily these three.


  But since 2007 that pattern has shifted big time with PDO going cold, AMO starting its downward trend (will be in it's cold phase in a few years) and the SUN is at 200+ year minimum phase. 

Doesn't mean every year in these long term cycles will have a colder than normal ocean just most. In the late 1950s the Pacific briefly shot up warmer (see chart above) and ironically this year has also seen a big surge in a warm PDO, much warmer than last year.