Zen.. where is 1988?
It's not the Peak value of the ONI.. it's the fact that the ONI goes DOWN.. that is the trigger.. I believe you and Richard are missing that,, (but then again it could just be me..?)
You definitely need to include 1988.
from the ONI.. ( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml )
1985 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 1986 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1987 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1988 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.7 | -1.8 |
The ONI peaked out Sept of 87 and FELL.. it was that "Down Elevator" that did it... (I thunk..??)
Which COULD be ominous for us at today's values.. ???
2012 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 2013 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 2014 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2015 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | | |
Edited by JonSCKs 11/15/2015 09:11
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JonSCKs, El Nino
