It's dangerous to ascribe too much credit to a single factor.. the ONI is simply an index credited with some correlation to El Nino / La Nina's..

First off there are MANY such Index's tracking other climatic factors.. (which assumes the weather can be modeled.. in the first place.. Where's the Butterfly flapping it's wing's index? for instance..)

However, climatic and weather modeling has improved.. not sure I'm up to the point of "settled science".. but it's certainly better.

With that said.. the ONI.. as I currently understand it.. (lol.. and by NO MEANS do I claim "guru" status.. for the record.. just trying to understand it myself..to determine if it has any relevance to my operation...???)

Okay.. so an Improving ONI predicting (??) El Nino.. generally can have a positive effect on most area's of the cornbelt.. it's the deterioration of the ONI.. peaking out.. and turning lower.. (possibly coupled with OTHER FACTORS..??) which leads to circumstances including the 1988 drought.. but not one in the late 1990's...???

There is ALSO the AMO/PDO cycle.. plus about 6..7..8.. or a gazillion others some of that "we know".. others maybe "not so much".. about.  So we're still "shooting in the dark" somewhat on all of this.. and again I am NOT a Meterologist.

Now back to your graphs..  If I counted correctly.. the arrow that you have on the first chart of "residual errors" is 1981.. 2.. 83,84 and 85 were pretty good years.. (and I remember those.. about the time I started to care about all things farming..)  I was in college in 1988.. when out of the blue the yield floor dropped out.

Now the AMO/PDO cycle says those were the "good ol days" during the "wet" part of the cycle..  We flipped the AMO.. in late 1990's.. early 00's.. and we flipped the PDO around 2013/14..

Ah Zen is on..

Anywho.. your chart goes back to the 1950's.. which was bad.. and can/will be similar to the environment that we are in now.. but we do not see a lot of residual error back then.. yields were only 40 bushels..

However, as we found out in 2011.. and especially from 170 bushel yields.. we can/could fall all the way down to 130..120.. etc..

My guys say that the 2011/2012 drought could have just been the JV team if you will and the BIG ONES still lie ahead..

Ill post below Zen.. 

back.. so. the thing that gets me.. is like this year.. it was mostly good.. better in other area's.. we did not get as much benefit out of THIS El Nino.. as we PROBABLY would have say during the 1980's..  but it wasn't 2011..either..  SW Kansas sure liked it..

Afterall.. it ALWAYS RAINS in Western Kansas.. uhum.. every 100 years or thereabouts..  lol.
lucky dogs..

The thing that gets me.. is since 2011.. we have some tailwater pits on our properties.. right now.. all but one are bone dry.  In my lifetime I have NEVER seen that till 2011.. which matches the AMO/PDO cycle..

"Things have changed." 

The wheat ground that I have been concerned about is because I plowed it this summer.. ("whoopsie")  My thoughts were.. "well if it's gonna rain this summer because of El Nino.. might as well sneak this in and take care of the weeds.. open it back up while we can.. and fill it will El Nino induced precip."

The vote to do it was 1 to 3.. but since I was the 1.. "motion passes.. Let's go!"  uhum..

just about got it up now..  but not rooted in... So I need this El Nino to hang around a little longer and pump some more moisture into my neck of the woods..  again we are 7" below average here..   "Thunked it was gonna be an El Nino year?  What Happened?"

later..