| I need to go back and take out the Sorghum.. the Cellulosic.. and cross check with actual WASDE numbers.. I used 2.75 conversion and back handed into the grind number.. Also remember that the data is calender year whereas the WASDE is Sept 1st.. etc.
So for a number of reasons it's not going to line up exactly.. I can understand now how/why EPA/administration is dragging it's feet on the RFS.. we want to move this along.. but we don't want this to get out of hand.. Plant profitability has been "eh" nothing spectacular.. but better than other times..
We're in a sweet spot for demand in that gasoline prices have softened.. coupled with the improving econmy.. this is leading to a pop in demand.. Again I expect that 2007 high in Total usage to be exceeded.. probably..??? Maybe next driving season..??
Actually a pop in Crude prices.. might be detrimental to that outlook...??
The dollar..?? is helping to hold energy prices down.. which is a stimulant to demand..
I need to go back and take out ethanol exports.. that would give us a clearer picture of what is occuring..
( http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m_epooxe_eex_nus-z00_mbbl&f=m ) U.S. Exports of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels) | |
Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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2010 | 324 | 519 | 1,153 | 973 | 414 | 387 | 603 | 707 | 929 | 834 | 930 | 1,717 | 2011 | 1,364 | 1,425 | 2,003 | 2,865 | 1,743 | 1,604 | 3,036 | 1,246 | 2,525 | 2,895 | 3,634 | 4,117 | 2012 | 1,819 | 1,785 | 1,992 | 1,775 | 1,397 | 1,410 | 1,519 | 1,206 | 1,191 | 1,284 | 965 | 1,313 | 2013 | 1,518 | 1,017 | 1,312 | 967 | 952 | 796 | 830 | 1,182 | 1,299 | 1,206 | 2,134 | 1,525 | 2014 | 2,091 | 1,517 | 2,059 | 1,659 | 1,265 | 1,378 | 1,599 | 1,292 | 1,353 | 1,949 | 2,114 | 1,872 | | 2015 | 1,637 | 2,031 | 1,999 | 1,786 | 1,540 | 1,437 | 1,843 | 1,197 |
2011 was when a credit expired.. Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec 2011 were stout.. The pop in ethanol exports that year came during a slack US domestic Gasoline period.. not necessarily the case now... so lot's of moving parts to all of this.
hmmm.. numbers not lining up here.. (look at it more later.)
The takeaways are that we are building steady demand.. growth.. yes Corn exports currently lag.. (are they backloaded? as usual..??) but we can make up a couple myn bushels.. on ethanol and ethanol exports.. "if the price is right."
Edited by JonSCKs 11/8/2015 12:59
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