Been busy and have not had time to post..

Tara noted slow farmer selling below.. which has been mentioned from buyers also.

Export shipments are offered as a bearish concern.. and yet they are the last item filled.  We do the beanies first.  Which btw we are AHEAD of the SHIPMENT pace for last year at 405.39 myn bushels ( 11,305.9 k mt's) shipped vs 379.45 myn ( 10,329.9  k mt's) this time last year..

( http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/soybeans.htm ) 

Instead of booking ahead China is coming in and buying hand to mouth..

  Sales 2015  Sales 2014  Shipments 2015  Shipments 2014  Sales 2016.. Sales 2015

CHINA : 7240.9 14792.9 7637.7 7401.2 1000.0 0.0   booked sales are HALF of last year.. yet SHIPMENTS are GREATER.. They are sending the boats and BUYING ASAP.. for NOW!

as are the EU..

EUROPEAN UNION - 27 : 30.0 235.6 958.4 883.9 0.0 0.0 

and about 4 or 5 others..

 MEXICO : 700.7 895.9 741.7 547.4 0.0 0.0

TAIWAN : 284.0 653.0 175.0 171.8 0.0 0.0

INDNSIA : 164.3 612.6 182.1 121.2 0.0 0.0

There are some that.. have booked More than last year as well as SHIPPED more.. including..

JAPAN : 621.3 535.5 343.5 182.8 29.9 0.0 
S ARAB : 66.0 65.0 72.6 68.2 0.0 0.0

Heck.. RUSSIA didn't even buy any last year..

RUSSIA : 178.0 60.0 126.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 

so.. "exports are poor" is just an excuse.. It appears that the SAME PATTERN on C/O is unfolding..

Here are the Historical WASDE 14/15 Soybean Carryouts when the WASDE changed them.. (and the 15/16 projected..)

( http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?docume... )

Aug  430
Sept 475
Nov  450
Jan  410
Mar 385
Apr  370
May 350
Jun  330  15/16
July  255
Aug  240  470
Sept 210  450
Oct              425
..      ??

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