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Fancy Dancy Marketing
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KevinM
Posted 10/31/2015 08:02 (#4868118 - in reply to #4867929)
Subject: RE: Fancy Dancy Marketing



SE IL
Maizeing - 10/31/2015 00:49

I have promoted selling call premium here in the past. Not sure this is the time and place to do that but if it gets you a cash price that works now on a few bu hopefully you can avg the 16 up later. This was not the problem in 96. The trouble was a lot of farmers hedged new crop in the July with the plan to roll the hedge to Z at a carry, later. The program worked well for a few years when the farmers were driving a volkswagon. That year greed had them driving a double decker grey hound and it didnt fit under the bridge. A lot people got their head ripped off when the market smelled out all these shorts had to buy the N and sell the Z. The market inverted big time and they had no physical to deliver yet. Significant risk exists in hedging crop in the wrong crop year. That doesnt mean there isnt opportunity.....it would work fairly well for me ..... If you guys would agree not to do it! ;-}


I don't know about the mkt smelling anything. What I do know is that after the short 95 crop we eventually had a record low carryover that caused a huge inversion. And yes a lot of folks got their head handed to them that weren't paying attention. The old/new crop roll had been working like clockwork while we had huge carryovers. Maybe all those July shorts exacerbated the inversion. Probably so. It was a spectacular show to watch from the cheap seats. :)
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