Centre county Pennsylvania, USA | CCYM for year 1998 (charts attached) does appear to have similar weekly crop condition yield prediction 'trajectory' as CCYM for this year (2015). CCYM's weekly crop condition yield trajectory is significantly different for most other years, that supports your weather analogous thesis.
Don't have CCYM for 1981 (yet), but I'll get it and try to confirm your weather analogous thesis. If so, then it suggests that CCYM can be improved by including a weather (or short term climate) variable in it's calling argument set.
Don't know when PP started.
 (CCYM_for_1998_corn.png)
 (CCYM_for_1998_soybeans.png)
Attachments
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 CCYM_for_1998_corn.png (100KB - 21 downloads)
CCYM_for_1998_soybeans.png (94KB - 14 downloads)
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2015 corn and soybean CCYM yield prediction update
