WASDE Soybean Exports.. ( http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf ) 1,675 myn bushels.. of which we have 1,002.3 on the books.  On today's pace..of 76.7 it would take.. 1,675 - 1,002.3 = 673 / 76.7 = 8.78 weeks to do..  Now granted this is the strong season.. but still??

Shipments..  1,675 - 325.4 = 1,349.6 / 103 = 13.1 weeks..  yal that's a stretch.. but we got Nov.. Dec.. Jan.. Feb.. and by then your in the ball park..

Brazil has sold.. and is selling on their currency weakness.. so it's in the market.. they are already committed on this crop yet to be planted.

Meanwhile US 2016 Bean acres will be declining.. 

Corn..  it's a slow start.. but we're around 250 myn behind on the ethanol grind.. corn exports?!?  Who cares??

We're averaging 950'ish k bbl grinds on the ethanol.. that's 100 myn bushels PER WEEK!

( http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epo... ) 

The WHOLE ENTIRE SORGHUM crop of 574 myn bushels.. could fuel our fleet for 5.7 weeks..  The LAST WASDE had the Domestic Sorghum Industrial usage at 15 myn bushels..  lol...We've already done that.. in Kansas alone.  Is Sorghum exports overstated at 430 myn bushels?  Well... can't do both.. so yal..

Euro Wheat Futures are up on Egyptian purchase.. and even the US rallies.. yup..  Brazil will need mill quality.. Aussies are down.. Black Sea is committed.. Argentina can't fill it all.. sooner or later the US is gonna be what's left.

$55 Crude by next summer.. by then US production will have fallen below 9 myn bbls per day.. which will probably happen here within weeks.. we'll get a bump next spring.. but probably not enough.. Meanwhile lower gasoline prices are throttling US demand.. see my ethanol numbers..

back to Morrison.. Corn prices in China have fallen.. thinks Sorghum and DDGS exports to China at risk.. ???  Could be.. going to zero..??  Not likely.. but ??

So Sorghum exports crash.. that we can't fill anyway.. just an admission of the fact.. WASDE is too high on exports and TOO LOW on ethanol grind.  DDGS will move somewhere..

"exports back loaded.."  "downside risks in basis levels.."  "weather issues a non factor.."  pretty hard for me to buy looking out my window at un emerged wheaties..  are we gonna get this HRW Wht Crop established before freeze up?  Winterkill...??  or blanket snows to the rescue..??

"WHY In the World are we gonna see acreage increases on lower prices?"

rotations...  how are these guys gonna get funded?  How are seed sales going??  lol...  Acres going back to where they came.. not everything.. but not record levels again.

"9 or 10 myn bbls per day of oil.."

( http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wcrfp... )  we're gonna fall below 9 soon.. 

Not sure I agree with Davis holding out on Diesel...

Nat Gas.. on warm winter... hmmm not sure I'm bullish there..?? 

Drought monitor.. yup.. still growing.. all comes down to rains.. Dry dry dry.. then 15" in 6 weeks.. then dry dry dry.. it seems like El Nino is trying to fill the dry area's in.. but this light mistings are not doing the job.. 3" out west.. we need THAT!!!

Morrison.. eh.. with him on the energy.. but you can't export AND grind the same bushel.. it's one OR the other... 

 
Yup.. Hurricane filled in the Red in Texas.. but overall.. Minus SW Ks.. it grew this week here.. going back to the 70's WITH WIND next week.. We need a rain.. and we NEED IT NOW!!!