Hi Kevin,

Well..for me, I would not have my stop there because it is nothing at this point, but if I am short, I would not want to see trades above this weeks highs without trading below last weeks lows first.  We are range bound so things are in flux but that would be a downside failure to me.  It would add another level of complexity to already complex formation.

The downside..at this point, I wouldn't want to say for certain.  I have three ideas - maybe four but price hasn't telegraphed it to me - or maybe it did and I was just too block headed to accept it.  Sat mentioned the grind and certainly that has been what we have been for a long time.   The problem is there are stops being put above and below the market, and the market hunts those.   We may grind for awhile but somebody eventually has to get hurt, one way or another.   I think it was weavefarmer that suggested we can't go lower because harvest is over, and farmers will hold tight til 3.90+  but this isn't a function of harvest lows.  If we go lower, it is purely a function of the market succumbing to its own dead weight - not harvest pressure.  And, IMHO, I don't think commercials that are hedged give a rip if the futures go lower or not as long as their margins improve.  They will let the corn go and keep the end users happy at lower futures prices.  In essence there are two harvest "gluts" per year for the end users.   I know here this summer in talking to some of the truck drivers post this summer's rally, the common theme was that the corn was not going to the end user but instead going back into storage.  That corn that was bought at -.40 or greater is sitting someplace just waiting to be moved.

Take Care