Probably the thing that sets us bulls off is that all the bearish news gets reported every hour on the hour per all the talking market heads on radio.. print.. etc..

"Exports continue to lag.. yada yada yada.."

However, WHEN you dig into it.. we shipped a boatload of sorghum out last year.. WHICH switched SOME of the ethanol grind over to Corn as you note.. NOW.. we're running about 5% ahead of last year's pace THUS FAR.. do we maintain that throughout the rest of the Marketing year (Sept 1st to Aug 31st..) ???

Yesterday's draw in Stocks combined with the seasonal uptick in the grind could say YES.. but we'll need some more data points to make the conclusion as to HOW MUCH?

Sorghum exports SHIPMENTS are running AHEAD of last year's pace MUCH like Soybeans.. although SALES are ALSO ahead of last year..

Due to the weak basis.. Sorghum is still CHEAPER thus far then corn here in the SW Plains.. as such we are seeing Sorghum move BACK into the grind on Ethanol as well as feed rations.. Thus we will NOT be able to BOTH EXPORT AND consume domestically AT THIS PACE..

You can SAY that Corn exports lag.. and that Soybean exports Lag.. Corn doesn't see it's pop till post Soybean anyway.. next spring.. but given the GROWTH in the ethanol grind.. how much does that offset it?

The Tail end of the export season was really bad for Wheat and Soybeans in previous years as we ran out of supply.. this year we will probably be able to finish stronger.. thus we do not know how BACK LOADED the tail end of the export season will be...??

The bearish news.. big crops are out there.. the bullish demand story is less read.. but equally strong.