I've taken a day or two.. on this one.

Don't take this the wrong way..  Okay.. fine.

So you've ripped my yields.. let's see yours.. post them like I have above.

First off in 2011 the first three fields that the insurance adjustor looked at.. we didn't even get out of the car.. nothing taller than knee high...no ears... tried again in 2012.. better but not much..  2013.. There was NOTHING in the elevators as we shipped EVERY SINGLE BUSHEL to Garden City Feedlots.. past.. I believe I counted 13 coop elevators on the way.. NOT A SINGLE TRUCK hauling from ANY of those elevators.. so.. even though it was "only" 65 bu corn.. it was some of the FIRST 65 bu DRY corn raised in the area.. the trucks ahead of me were coming up from the Dallas area... I also posted about this.. "feel free.."  

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=418921&posts=13#M3348425

2014.. so now we come into last year.. If you read my posts.. you'll remember that I posted a pic of a 108 degree day.. in August.. during grain fill.. since you know how raising corn in Kansas can go.. I'm sure you know how that could turn out.. instead.. as you note.. "this time" it actually did rain.. (unlike this past weekend's epic miss...)  As I posted last year.. I record my historical yields as a summary of field's yields.. thus smaller fields overweight.. total bushels divided by total acres was around 126... not bad.. and yes it filled..  The difference between 2014's 126'ish.. and 2013's 65 was probably.. maybe an inch or two at the right time.. the individual field results are highly variable..  For instance my best ever field was in 2009 at 184 bu.. still the AVERAGE for that year was only 100 bu.. so you see.. "it's a crapshoot."

ALSO as you can see.. I've raised dryland corn every year since 1992...

I also have a seed dealership.. today I'm looking at test plot data.. dryland corn.. two counties to my east are busting.. 140 to 170 bu yields.. next county over.. 180..  I don't know of any dryland corn two counties to my west.. sure there probably is some.. but not much.  Too bad cause this year probably would have been pretty good.

Now to follow up.. to the original post of this thread.. I listened to a meterologist give a talk to the American Ag lenders today on the radio.. he basically said the EXACT SAME THING that I posted above..

"There's a hightened probability of La Nina's following El Nino's.. we can expect this winter to be Warmer and Dryer in the Upper Midwest and the Cornbelt.. Not sure how much Longer this EL Nino will last.. hopeful that it will last through spring.. it's possible that next year's CORN YIELDS could be ADVERSELY AFFECTED.. although it is too early to know for sure now.  

I was thankful to see the hurricane come into Texas and put some relief into the developing dry conditions there.. for now..  IF THAT WERE to CONTINUE TO BUILD.. it could set the stage similar to 2012...

Anyway.. it is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that the HIGH YIELDS of the PREVIOUS TWO YEARS will be MAINTAINED.."

That's coming from someone who has a PhD in Meterology..

I thought of this thread as I listened to him.. "not so crazy afterall."