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Market Hedging, futures, options, oh my
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maydel
Posted 10/28/2015 10:47 (#4862427 - in reply to #4861532)
Subject: RE: Market Hedging, futures, options, oh my


Theodore, Saskatchewan
Cessnapilot you have good questions and obviously get a range of answers from everybody. There is no perfect answer as it depends on you and your goals. My input...

It is easy to see that marketing has the potential to net you more money. I consider poor marketing to be as hard on the farm as a hail storm. Similar losses per acre. Yet you are probably not doing a bad job as it is. So a substantial amount of effort may at first only yield you a little bit more. "Big" part of grain marketing is a subjective word, really it is just another way of doing the same job. Adding another tool in there.


Before you jump into all the webinars and seminars think about your grain and trading itself. A big hurdle is seeing that gain or loss on a daily basis. When it is grain in the bin guys don't think about it. When you get a daily statement of your account it becomes front and center. Come to terms with the fact that 5000 bu in the bin is the same as 5000 bu on paper. My suggestion is to add up the grain in your bin and multiply it by the futures price today. Then at the end of every day add or subtract a value on it based on what the futures market did. Then you realize that grain in the bin is speculating. Cause you sure would not have it in the bin if you thought it was worth less in the future! By definition you are speculating that it will be worth more in the future and that is why you keep it. The value of the grain is your margin money. Now a hedge or futures account allows you to use much less margin money for the same gain or loss. And that is where the understanding comes in that you will gain or lose more money than you have in the account, because it is the SAME as your bin full of grain.

Start with the basics. Cause it is the emotions that will get you and no webinar or seminar on trading will help you learn more than experience.

Is it worth it in the long run? Well even if you don't continue trading you will likely cash market your grain better. So probably will be worth it, just hard to quantify.

Good luck!

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