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Buxton ND | You will not hear this on Market Rally but you will hear it from me.
First off I'm long a ZCH 4.50 call @ .05, working on another @ .025, next step will be 4.00 calls, I'm NOT at the point in time/price where I'm will to buy the board.
Money flows in corn and wheat were quite negative last week, hence my comment below on sniffing around 3.60 ZCZ
Week ending the 20th
Spec longs sold (the bulls),,,,,,,,,,,,,11k these are the traders we need NET NEW BUYING CORN, NOT SELLING*****
For the $5 corn guys these are traders you need hitting massive "Grand Slam Home Runs" buying corn*****
Spec shorts sold, net NEW selling of 35k (the bears are fully in control here)
For net selling on the week of 46k this is a large number gentlemen.
As of 10.20.15 they sit 100k net long, the least net long since the 6.30.2015
Moves of 20-30k per week are common place.
50-60k fairly rare.
Historically the all time biggest move in 5 days was 73k April 2nd (planting intentions report) 2013 with the market dropping over a buck in 2 weeks as the bull spec money had their donkey's handed to them on a silver platter. Since the drought this was the first time the spec bully's got burnt, AND BURNT BAD.
This heavy selling surprised me and I have a feeling it surprised many traders. Surprises in money flows have a very strong trend for Sunday openings gaps. Bearish in this case,,, BULLISH in 2012's drought where the surprises were bullish (more buying then thought or guesstimates) and lead to MAJOR gaps higher on Sunday openings. Do not be surprised if early bid/asks are slightly higher.
IMO tonight's open and Monday's close will set the tone in the corn market til Turkey day UNLESS the next USDA report changes the tune. | |
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Sat's "Clarity"
