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| Oct. 1 on feed 103 (101.8) Placed Sep. 96 (93.9) Mkt. Sep 98 (97.7).
Cold storage report yesterday said we had 2% more in sept over August.
Cattle weights continue to climb.
None of this is good news.
Early into the cash trade of Nebraska right now but 208 from majors, a little better from some regionals. If the 208 hold in Nebraska, that is trouble for this market, IMO. Why dec is over oct is stil shocking to me. Has been for some time. But I have taken a punch to the shorts here as of late but am sticking with my position.
Tx and KS are their own beasts right now and are helping to hold the market. But for how long I'm unsure. I am to the point where I'm kinda beside myself of why December is at 143 and cash in Nebraska is 132-134. It has time on its side, but I'm anticipating a collapse. I told broker market down limit Monday, and he said early call was -.50 but he was taking my side.
You still can not buy cattle at a hedgeable breakeven. It has improved, and I actually think it's really close to a breakeven. But then I talk to a guy who got burned for -200 back in Jun and I've been trying to coach him up and he just bought some cattle again, unhedged hoping for market to rally 7 bucks. He's going to get burned, again. Some just never learn. Have had 2 other people not cattlemen by the day to day sense ask us if now was a good time to buy cattle. Based on that sentiment alone, I'm going to say it's not. If everyone thinks it's a good deal, it's probably not going to be a good deal.
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Cattle on Feed
