Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | If I'm not mistaken the 23 cent is the price of the risk between buying at harvest vs buying next spring.
If however you plot the price monthly price received (USDA) vs the Sept stocks (reported after the fact) for the years 2006 to 2015 (assuming 2015 is 1.592) you see a little different picture. For convienence the interval between the major grid lines is 400 million bushel. You see that in preceding Dec there is difference of about $1.20 per bushel for that 400 million bushels. By May that difference in price is $1.60. I suspect that if I checked the estimated Sept stocks in the preceding Dec. I would find they were higher than the final values and that difference accounts for the 40 cent difference in price.
Rather than conclude the difference in price occasioned by a 400 million bushel difference in stocks is trival I conclude that the market has already efficently priced the difference.
Edited by 1234 9/29/2015 19:14
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 (Sept stocks vs May Price-page-001.jpg)
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 Sept stocks vs Dec price-page-001.jpg (78KB - 64 downloads)
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What is 400 million bushels of corn carryout worth??
