Frytown, Iowa | cornbore - 9/29/2015 09:11
Mostly everyone wanted to stay with their numbers until the Iowa and Minnesota corn crops came out. They stuck with their crop condition yield models, unlike what the farmers had been telling them. Now that those two states are in the fields there is no Illinios miracle to make up for the indiana's and missouiri's of the world. I still can't believe the traders are such sheep believing we where only three bushels under last years massive crop with all the drounded out spots. Talk about cubical clown. They where more worried about drawing forks on a chart then looking at the crop in the field. I guess I shouldn't be surprised because they did the same thing in 93 when it was a much bigger scale.
Buck since you can't read a chart or fork to save your life I will put into words what anyone who has been posting Andrews forks have been saying.
We are in a long term bear trend. So rally's should be sold. Do not hold. This is why I sold my entire projected corn crop above 4.30 instead of waiting for $5. I also don't have bins so if I stored at the elevator I would definitely have to have $5 corn to pay the 45 cents in storage to make up any difference. A bird in hand vs two in the bush scenario. Since the 4.50 sellers did it make a new lower low this leaves the 4.50 sellers vulnerable to be broken. Remember my call for 4.65? It is still there but not during harvest. Jpartner shows targets up to 5.25 even maybe next year...
But the fact remains that until we close on a weekly above 5.25 the draw is to make a lower low below 3.18... What this means is make sales when price is good so that you are not caught when price sucks... And it will suck in the future again.
Perhaps this is something you can comprehend? Being a bull in a bear market means always watching for a turn on price. Drawing lines to watch how price moves through them. And not passing on a 4.50 price...
|
arc and their yield models
