Maizeing - 9/28/2015 22:55
I don't think it's crazy at all. You have a known and tolerable risk. IMO a very high probability the market makes a low here and bounces in Oct. Our yield is good and we will have extra bu to sell so I will consider myself long enough there and won't bother with an option. The dead cat bounce will buy the rest of my beans. In recent years we have been seeing a 75 cent pop so maybe target orders around the 9.30 might not be a bad plan for those looking to get out...... At least it might save you from Sat's scolding? ;0)
Just wondering why you think we make a low here other than seasonals. Seems like most are reporting "better than expected" yields. I'm not sure it's "baked in" yet? What is the latest we have made "the" low for the year? Or at least some years with later lows. Thanks. |