|
| It seems they are at 166.5 at a national yield and are hinting at a 2 bu an acre decrease during the oct report. That would put the national yield at 164.5. The justification for talking that down is export demand is declining so you shouldn't worry about about the decline in yields. first thought is the trend of declining yields is increasing and thinking the october report is the end of the declines is preposterous. The trend is your friend in declining yields as well as increasing yields. I am sticking with the 55 year trend line yield of 161, for now. That brings stocks down around the one billion bu mark. If you us the last supply and demand report it is below. The second part is the blend wall is reported to increase coming up. We are not losing demand but finding demand at these prices. No avian flu, cattle herd is increasing, the pork disease that killed the newborns is gone. We are using plenty of corn. Well sorry about the rant. | |
|
arc and their yield models
