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JonSCKs, Biodiesel & the VW scandal, you may be correct.
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JonSCKs
Posted 9/26/2015 10:45 (#4809513 - in reply to #4809294)
Subject: More reports..


Here's a good primer covering basically what you just said..

( http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-fallout-from-volkswag... )

US Shale production is in deep trouble at these prices..

( http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/09/22/one-chart-that-sho... )

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has put out data showing that debt is strangling U.S. oil producers and low oil prices will only worsen the problem. With production expected to fall 400,000 barrels per day or more next year and revenue from existing wells failing to cover debt costs, it could be a long year for the energy industry.

So things remain.. "fluid."

This is Zero Hedge.. (??) but they are picking up on "the end is near" meme on Shale Drilling..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-24/shale-partys-over-closed-bond-market-means-restructuring-inevitable )

With the market's perceived risk of default across the energy space at record highs, it should be no surprise that willingness to lend (even for the greater-fool reach-for-yielders) is collapsing. As Bloomberg reports, oil services companies are finding alternative ways to raise cash and repay debt after falling crude prices has made it difficult for them to get funding from traditional sources. As one restructuring firm warned, "bond markets are closed for these companies, especially small ones, and banks may not be lending to them at this stage," with another ominoulsy warning, "getting new liquidity in this market could be a painful exercise. For many companies, financial restructuring seems inevitable." 

So in some ways.. Renewables have been more successful than even we imagined.. but.. again things remain "fluid" between the end of the commodity Super Cycle.. and the Inevitable coming next drought...

"We're either going to a 1980's bust and $2 corn.. OR the drought migrates NE out of Cali to the northen plains and $8 Corn again... one or the other..."

In fact Tara put me down for that.. 2016 corn prediction JonSCKs.. "$2.00 to $8.00"

yipper.. nothing like putting it in print.  ;-

Actually the wind and Solar guys are making some progress from my perspective.. "that is totally stupid" back when we had Sebellius to.. "well they are well paying jobs.. and the wind does blow.. and the sun does shine."  now...  

Granted everyone is all abuzz about China slowing down.. but when you look at 500 year coal supplies in the US.. vs Growth rates.. plus exports.. you can chop that in half pretty quickly.. then.. ???  The Cap and Trade Crowd doesn't sound so crazy...

hmmm... 

One last edit:  I've never really given the "we're burning our food" crowd much worry.. as I've spendt most of my life working on Ag Surpluses.. it's been US Ag policy since the 1930's on what to do with all the excess...??  Set-Asides?  Grain Banks?.. CRP..??  Export Enhancements??  PIK.. PIK and ROLL??  Burn it in Coal power plants??

However, when you think that Fossil fuels by one theory is that we burn an accumulated 400 years of rotted biomass coked under pressure for eon's.. which we call Crude and burn THAT per YEAR now..  Thus making the jump from a very LONG and INEFFICIENT Nature Process to a more efficient BIO process today.. (it's how I look at it..) makes SOME sense.. (got any better idea's?)

and I also probably shouldn't admit this either.. but I was in a field of corn yesterday that was pushing the monitor.. 290 to 320... golly.. might need some more bin space..???  So.. gonna have to do something with it....

"always something." 



Edited by JonSCKs 9/26/2015 11:15
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