"The more things change.. the more they stay the same.."

The previous 2 big yield spikes in Corn Yields.. 160.4 in 2004 and 164.7 in 2009 were followed by drops of 7.7% and 7.2% to 148 in 2005 and 152.8 in 2010.  Are we set up to see that again after last year's 171 yield?

The October 2010 WASDE report wiped 500 myn bushels off the production ledger..

( http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/waob/wasde//2010s/2010/wasde-1... )

When Corn yields fell 6.7 bu per acre from the September to the October report... 500 myn bushels!!! 

IF you took 7.45% off last year's 171 bu yield you would get 158.26 bushels...or a 12.834 byn bushel crop.  Does history repeat?

Some also question if we do not flip back to La Nina.. 2011 was the start of that cycle.. which ultimately lead to $7.9975 corn by June of 2011..

( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/en... )

It would probably be too quick to flip back that hard.. but the AMO/PDO cycle has seen drought migrate from Texas.. to California.. to the PNW.. to.. ???  the upper plains..???

That's still what my guru see's.. although again.. we could be a year or two off yet.. still got time to prepare..

"ya'll might want to bin this crop though.."

The market REALLY MESSED UP in NOT buying ENOUGH corn acres this year... from the looks of things.