Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | I've been wondering just how the prospective state corn yields and production will affect how corn will need to move around the country this year. Obviously there are many unknown factors but perhaps by combining stocks and production information by state a rough idea of the situation is possible.
I started by estimating this past year's usage (or disappearance) based on the quarterly stocks information and production data. The USDA reported stocks up to June 1st and assuming that this year's fourth quarter usage is the same as last year's then we can estimate what the Sept '15 stocks report will say. The estimate of Sept '15 stocks & prospective '15 production gives the '15 supply and assuming that '15-'16 usage will be the same as '14-'15 usage we can estimate the Sept '16 remaining stocks.
The results are show in the table below. I took the liberty of using the Profarmer Tour state yields to calculate those particular states' production ( in red). Interestingly enough, using the Aug. USDA numbers doesn't change the conclusions just the magnitude of the trends.
The results indicate, for instance that Illinois can just break even with 13 million bushel remaining while Indiana will be 195 million bushel short and both Iowa & Minnesota some 400 million bushel ahead.
Obviously this isn't going to happen. For example, Ill, Ind and Ohio routinely export corn down the Ohio & Mississippi rivers. That probably will be curtailed this year. However, if that corn is to be exported by river from Iowa & Minnesota it needs to happen before the Upper Mississippi freezes. Furthermore this export will compete with corn moving east to Illinois & Indiana. It will be interesting to see just how the basis in Iowa & Minnesota responses to the situation.
 (corn shortfall by state-page-001.jpg)
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Some frivolous speculation
