| Fishguts2 - 9/9/2015 22:02 Fry-Have always enjoyed your posts-But man when someone states a certain trading system or chart formation or whatever is 80 percent reliable-My trading/hedging radar goes into overdrive-Ive been hearing that kind of crap all my life-Got over 40 years of trading/hedging (you cant tell me theres a difference) under my belt now-Lost or reduced a bunch of accounts -Especially in the early years-There is no Holy Grail in hedging/trading-If there is a Holy Grail-Its the complete and total understanding of the frail human emotions of that guy in the mirror-THAT is the essence of successful trading/hedging-It is this LACK of understanding that prevents 80 percent of the guys from becoming successful hedgers/traders-Theyre whipped befor they start-Most of the "USDA is screwing us" crowd is in here- The guys that can conquer "the guy in the mirror" can then go on to be successful traders/marketers-Now lets say the "Forks" were 80 percent reliable-Lets take 10 guys-They each put 100k in the pot-They start trading/marketing with each other-They all use the "80 percent reliable Andrews fork system"-100 percent guarantee without a doubt that one or 2 of the guys will quickly end up with all the money-These guys have learned to control their emotion to the point that they are mathematical machines-The true essence of hedging/trading-Hence their edge in the market-Gonna quit now
I think you've hit the nail on the head, at least obliquely. Forks, charts, cycles, all are fascinating and valuable in their own way. How much wealth has been accumulated by guys who looked at that guy in the mirror and bought a couple hundred acres in the face of adversity and being half scared to death, and pulled it off without any of that other analysis? LOTS. Those guys controlled their emotions, like that successful trader. Or (not the same, but similar in certain ways) the Marine who charges a bunker in the face of mortar and machine gun fire. I suppose there are many traders who do nothing but sit on a beach drinking margaritas, drawing charts, and collecting obscene profits. I bet the aggregate net worth of people who operated farms or other businesses without caring much about charts while relying on simple hard work and common sense is greater by far than the people who do nothing but trade charts. |
Fundamentals always take over
