Don't have time but did it anyway.. last 6 years of August WASDE Soybean Carryouts..
Year... Current Carryout.. NEXT year's guestimate..
August 2015 240 470 August 2014 140 430 overshot by 190 August 2013 125 220 overshot by 80 August 2012 145 115 under by 10 August 2011 230 155 overshot by 10 August 2010 160 360 overshot by 130
average 173 vs 292..
Is there a bias there? |