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| Well, I wish I knew how to do it, but overlay yearly production graphs on yearly export graphs and there is considerable correlation with wheat, beans and corn.
For this year I am thinking corn at closer to 80 million acres harvested and was at 162 bu/A harvested, but now thinking maybe only 160 per acre = 12.8 to 13.0 bbu.
Soybeans larger acres this year and what I've seen are looking good, but such a finicky beast when finally mature.
Wheat I have no handle on and "they say" world awash so not likely to be short, but when US supply drops so do exports in all cases b/c the exporters will never allow domestic supply to reach zero as they are tied at the hip with animal production and other end uses.
I consider the grain companies to have a better estimate of supply than USDA or WASDE and so I watch exports as an indicator b/c US export price is generally competitive with other exporters.
Not accurate 100%, as ES and offshore production always a large factor, so maybe only 70%.
IDK and always admit it.
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R we running out?
