| cornbore - 9/8/2015 10:21 You can ignore them, you can say they are wrong, you can talk about poor exports (even though it is 12 percent of demand) you can over hype crop size. Eventually the true fundamentals win out. From early crop yields coming out the 168 pipe dream is getting flushed down the drain. We should be looking at the best yields getting taken out now, but they are 10-30 percent under last year. Grain bears have a rude awakening coming up in October unless the guberment tells the truth in the September crop report. It just isn't there boys. just in time to be wrong. You reference fundamentals, yet only mention yield. There are much much more to fundamentals than just supply. Fundamentals are always the most bullish when price tops, and the most bearish when price bottoms. This happens without fail. If anything they are a contrarian indicator at picking the turns. Corn....supplies were tightest at the top in 2012...and most burdensome at the bottom, silver, the mints were running out, and Apple was going to have to halt manufacturing because of the shortage. Beans, we have run out how many times now since the top, but keep going lower? The list goes on and on. The current move in corn has been sideways since last October. There were opportunities along the way, but it has all been a marking of time. Price projected a pivot in the future along a line of frequency a year ago - that has been projecting a move to above 5.25. It was there before the planters even began to roll, or the rain clouds cut loose. Let me know when the fundamentals get around to projecting that and by then price will have already projected its next move....or two. |
Fundamentals always take over
