|
Buxton ND | If you want bullish smoke blown up your back side STOP READING and add beer.
Blacky I haven't said much on cattle lately because my opinion has to changed since last winter. Plus been busy so haven't payed much attention. "THE HIGHS" were put in last winter and we're not going back there any time soon. We're still going to have rallies but we are in a bear/downtrending market so they will be brief.
I got "some" grief for comparing cows to corn from the money flows stand point, but so far its worked pretty well even tho a new calf to butcher takes ALOT longer then a new cob of corn to fly thru the combine.
All time record net longs in fats was some over 120k early 2014, sold off a tad then came back to 105kish last December. Then the heavy "We're Leaving" set in dropping down to under 40k this past February. From this point forward we had a really nice rally as the funds went back to over 80k late May, early June. Since June 9th,,, 12 weeks,,, they have been net selling ALL BUT 2 WEEKS and those 2 weeks the buying was lite. This is a STRONG TREND, I've seen this in many other markets and IMVSO is why we see "markets in general" make lower highs and lower lows.
Here's the part your not gonna like***** from that 80k,,,,, 12 weeks ago,,,,, their ONLY 3k net long as of 9-1-2015........................ SEPTEMBER IS IMPORTANT because the price action so far has broken the long term trend line dating back to late 2009************ This is where like to forget that August was the front month and look forward to where the October price is trading on a monthly chart even tho technically August is the front month. Maybe that's alittle confusing and I do not know if its the correct way to do but its worked well in a few markets the last couple of years.
NOW looking forward I have a horizontally trend line on weekly cattle @ $135 in that area, plus some money flow thoughts "should" be a good place for a bounce. A bounce retesting that long term monthly trend line (145ish) would be a good first target. IDK about seasonal's here.
Then we have the 100 day SMA on the weekly charts (longer term targets) fats have already broken it, feeders are close. At one time in corn, beans I had these same targets. MA on the daily's are all moving lower.
LONG TERM TARGETS, 12-18 months 100 day (month) on a monthly charts are
$115ish fats.
$140ish feeders.
YES that's some wild low numbers gentlemen, at one time I posted these SAME TARGETS in corn and beans (many thought Sat was crazy) targets which HAVE ALL BEEN MET OR EXCEEDED in corn/beans and wheat.
NOW VERY BLUNT, My Lord guys you really have to think about your paying for feeder cattle**********
I can say the same thing about cash rents.
Bottom line,,,,,
Neither will do any good. | |
|
Sat, Cattle thoughts?
