|
Dayton, IA | Just a couple of comments and I think they sound pretty rude, but I don't mean them that way, just my thoughts as I read what you posted.
You don't know when to start counting years to a rebound until after you have reached the high price again and fully recovered, because until you have the previous high and new high, you don't know where the bottom is/was. We can speculate all we want but as we are sitting here in the valley, we don't know where the exact bottom is until we get back to the top of the hill and take a measurement. So this data is only useful somewhere down the road to explain, after the fact, what happened.
Your probability of 50% within 5 yrs and 50% more then 5 yrs would seem to get much more lopsided twards the long side when you throw in the probability we have reached the low in any given year. I would guess again, standing in the valley, there is a 50% probability we reached the low in any given year so you start with only a 50% probability that you should even start counting to the run up in any given year.
Just my thoughts, maybe I'm looking at it wrong but seems like just a lot of backward looing data.
A.J.
| |
|
How long before corn prices recover?
