| We got the ethanol update this afternoon. For the year at a 2.78 conversion we ground 5,273 myn bushels through the end of the grain year. 73 myn bushels MORE than the WASDE forecast at 5,200. The Grind backed off to 948 k bbls per day, Domestic usage set a RECORD at 921 k bbls per day however we did end up importing 12 k bbls per day. We also got a slight stocks build to 19 myn bbls which makes the implied exports negative or -14.4 k bbls per day. A year ago domestic usage was 880 k bbls per day thus we have added 41 k bbls per day which is a pretty healthy growth.. probably due to increased gasoline usage from the lower crude prices.. which in order to make gasoline you need Octane which of course ethanol is the CHEAPEST source of Octane.. hence the increased demand. | | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.78 | conversion | 5,005 | | Ethanol as % of | 8/23/2013 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | WASDE | 5134 | | | 8/30/2013 | 819 | | 861 | | 37 | | 16,216 | 43% | | | | | | | | | | | 9094 | 9.47% | 9/6/2013 | 848 | | 834 | | 15 | | 16,269 | 43% | | 21.4 | | 150 | | | 855.4 | 89,681 | | | 8605 | 9.69% | 9/13/2013 | 838 | | 842 | | 3 | | 16,178 | 43% | | 12.0 | | 84 | | | 854.0 | 88,623 | | | 9028 | 9.33% | 9/20/2013 | 832 | | 852 | | 48 | | 15,613 | 41% | | 108.7 | | 761 | | | 960.7 | 87,988 | | | 8846 | 9.63% | 9/27/2013 | 875 | | 846 | | 14 | | 15,509 | 41% | | 57.9 | | 405 | 1400 | 1206 | 903.9 | 92,536 | 358,828 | | 8527 | 9.92% | 10/4/2013 | 868 | | 868 | | 0 | | 15,390 | 41% | | 17.0 | | 119 | | | 885.0 | 91,796 | | | 8846 | 9.81% | 10/11/2013 | 869 | | 857 | | 0 | | 15,419 | 41% | | 7.9 | | 55 | | | 864.9 | 91,901 | | | 9077 | 9.44% | 10/18/2013 | 897 | | 851 | | 0 | | 15,499 | 41% | | 34.6 | | 242 | | | 885.6 | 94,863 | | | 8797 | 9.67% | 10/25/2013 | 911 | | 870 | | 0 | | 14,961 | 39% | | 117.9 | | 825 | 1241 | 1206 | 987.9 | 96,343 | 374,903 | | 9054 | 9.61% | 11/1/2013 | 902 | | 859 | | 0 | | 15,165 | 40% | | 13.9 | | 97 | | | 872.9 | 95,391 | | | 9292 | 9.24% | 11/8/2013 | 927 | | 874 | | 0 | | 15,153 | 40% | | 54.7 | | 383 | | | 928.7 | 98,035 | | | 9032 | 9.68% | 11/15/2013 | 904 | | 853 | | 0 | | 15,083 | 40% | | 61.0 | | 427 | | | 914.0 | 95,603 | | | 8924 | 9.56% | 11/22/2013 | 927 | | 837 | | 0 | | 15,022 | 40% | | 98.7 | | 691 | | | 935.7 | 98,035 | | | 8909 | 9.39% | 11/29/2013 | 913 | | 837 | | 0 | | 15,124 | 40% | | 61.4 | | 430 | 1,931 | 2134 | 898.4 | 96,555 | 483,619 | 1,217,350 | 8873 | 9.43% | 12/6/2013 | 944 | | 826 | | 0 | | 15,488 | 41% | | 66.0 | | 462 | | | 892.0 | 99,833 | | | 8348 | 9.89% | 12/13/2013 | 928 | | 827 | | 0 | | 15,625 | 41% | | 81.4 | | 570 | | | 908.4 | 98,141 | | | 9016 | 9.17% | 12/20/2013 | 926 | | 876 | | 0 | | 15,660 | 41% | | 45.0 | | 315 | | | 921.0 | 97,929 | | | 9176 | 9.55% | 12/27/2013 | 913 | | 808 | | 0 | | 15,582 | 41% | | 116.1 | | 813 | 2160 | 1605 | 924.1 | 96,555 | 392,458 | | 8893 | 9.09% | 1/3/2014 | 919 | | 756 | | 0 | | 16,138 | 43% | | 83.6 | | 585 | | | 839.6 | 97,189 | | | 8274 | 9.14% | 1/10/2014 | 868 | | 797 | | 0 | | 16,078 | 42% | | 79.6 | | 557 | | | 876.6 | 91,796 | | | 8021 | 9.94% | 1/17/2014 | 905 | | 802 | | 0 | | 17,018 | 45% | | -31.3 | | -219 | | | 770.7 | 95,709 | | | 8059 | 9.95% | 1/24/2014 | 900 | | 815 | | 0 | | 16,932 | 45% | | 97.3 | | 681 | | | 912.3 | 95,180 | | | 8584 | 9.49% | 1/31/2014 | 895 | | 801 | | 0 | | 16,739 | 44% | | 121.6 | | 851 | 2,455 | 2,054 | 922.6 | 94,651 | 474,524 | | 8452 | 9.48% | 2/7/2014 | 902 | | 816 | | 0 | | 17,062 | 45% | | 39.9 | | 279 | | | 855.9 | 95,391 | | | 8325 | 9.80% | 2/14/2014 | 903 | | 806 | | 0 | | 17,203 | 45% | | 76.9 | | 538 | | | 882.9 | 95,497 | | | 8030 | 10.04% | 2/21/2014 | 905 | | 835 | | 0 | | 17,024 | 45% | | 95.6 | | 669 | | | 930.6 | 95,709 | | | 8535 | 9.78% | 2/28/2014 | 894 | | 846 | | 0 | | 16,611 | 44% | | 107.0 | | 749 | 2,235 | 1,605 | 953.0 | 94,545 | 381,142 | | 8411 | 10.06% | 3/7/2014 | 869 | | 841 | | 0 | | 15,908 | 42% | | 128.4 | | 899 | | | 969.4 | 91,901 | | | 8949 | 9.40% | 3/14/2014 | 891 | | 845 | | 0 | | 15,277 | 40% | | 136.1 | | 953 | | | 981.1 | 94,228 | | | 8512 | 9.93% | 3/21/2014 | 885 | | 857 | | 0 | | 15,653 | 41% | | -25.7 | | -180 | | | 831.3 | 93,594 | | | 9002 | 9.52% | 3/28/2014 | 922 | | 850 | | 11 | | 15,875 | 42% | | 51.3 | | 359 | 2,031 | 2,139 | 901.3 | 97,506 | 377,229 | | 8713 | 9.76% | 4/4/2014 | 896 | | 852 | | 38 | | 16,407 | 43% | | 6.0 | | 42 | | | 858.0 | 94,757 | | | 8996 | 9.47% | 4/11/2014 | 939 | | 848 | | 0 | | 16,952 | 45% | | 13.1 | | 92 | | | 861.1 | 99,304 | | | 8616 | 9.84% | 4/18/2014 | 910 | | 853 | | 11 | | 16,518 | 44% | | 130.0 | | 910 | | | 983.0 | 96,237 | | | 8430 | 10.12% | 4/25/2014 | 898 | | 865 | | 0 | | 17,212 | 45% | | -66.1 | | -463 | 581 | 1,585 | 798.9 | 94,968 | 385,267 | | 8693 | 9.95% | 5/2/2014 | 894 | | 846 | | 0 | | 17,140 | 45% | | 58.3 | | 408 | | | 904.3 | 94,545 | | | 8719 | 9.70% | 5/9/2014 | 922 | | 890 | | 43 | | 17,302 | 46% | | 51.9 | | 363 | | | 941.9 | 97,506 | | | 9191 | 9.68% | 5/16/2014 | 925 | | 886 | | 11 | | 16,990 | 45% | | 94.6 | | 662 | | | 980.6 | 97,824 | | | 9174 | 9.66% | 5/23/2014 | 927 | | 895 | | 0 | | 17,489 | 46% | | -39.3 | | -275 | | | 855.7 | 98,035 | | | 9310 | 9.61% | 5/30/2014 | 938 | | 862 | | 0 | | 18,250 | 48% | | -32.7 | | -229 | 929 | 1,263 | 829.3 | 99,199 | 487,109 | | 9104 | 9.47% | 6/6/2014 | 944 | | 869 | | 0 | | 18,422 | 49% | | 50.4 | | 353 | | | 919.4 | 99,833 | | | 8624 | 10.08% | 6/13/2014 | 972 | | 891 | | 0 | | 17,850 | 47% | | 162.7 | | 1139 | | | 1053.7 | 102,794 | | | 9258 | 9.62% | 6/20/2014 | 938 | | 891 | | 0 | | 18,183 | 48% | | -0.6 | | -4 | | | 890.4 | 99,199 | | | 8813 | 10.11% | 6/27/2014 | 953 | | 883 | | 0 | | 18,204 | 48% | | 67.0 | | 469 | 1,957 | 1,431 | 950.0 | 100,785 | 402,611 | | 9168 | 9.63% | 7/4/2014 | 927 | | 883 | | 9 | | 18,286 | 48% | | 41.3 | | 289 | | | 924.3 | 98,035 | | | 8935 | 9.88% | 7/11/2014 | 943 | | 851 | | 5 | | 17,945 | 47% | | 145.7 | | 1020 | | | 996.7 | 99,727 | | | 9057 | 9.40% | 7/18/2014 | 959 | | 852 | | 0 | | 17,940 | 47% | | 107.7 | | 754 | | | 959.7 | 101,419 | | | 8792 | 9.69% | 7/25/2014 | 954 | | 877 | | 7 | | 18,587 | 49% | | -8.4 | | -59 | 2,004 | 1,600 | 868.6 | 100,891 | 400,073 | | 9006 | 9.74% | 8/1/2014 | 902 | | 875 | | 0 | | 18,260 | 48% | | 73.7 | | 516 | | | 948.7 | 95,391 | | | 9359 | 9.35% | 8/8/2014 | 931 | | 890 | | 0 | | 17,760 | 47% | | 112.4 | | 787 | | | 1002.4 | 98,458 | | | 8922 | 9.98% | 8/15/2014 | 937 | | 864 | | 0 | | 18,251 | 48% | | 2.9 | | 20 | | | 866.9 | 99,093 | | | 8775 | 9.85% | 8/22/2014 | 913 | | 889 | | 0 | | 17,317 | 46% | | 157.4 | | 1102 | | | 1046.4 | 96,555 | | | 9100 | 9.77% | 8/29/2014 | 921 | | 880 | | 0 | | 17,673 | 47% | | -9.9 | | -69 | 2,356 | 1,292 | 870.1 | 97,401 | 486,898 | 5,005 | 9480 | 9.28% | 9/5/2014 | 927 | | 850 | | 0 | | 18,021 | 48% | | 27.3 | | 191 | | | 877.3 | 98,035 | | | 8611 | 9.87% | 9/12/2014 | 931 | | 846 | | 0 | | 18,805 | 50% | | -27.0 | | -189 | | | 819.0 | 98,458 | | | 8707 | 9.72% | 9/19/2014 | 889 | | 886 | | 0 | | 18,592 | 49% | | 33.4 | | 234 | | | 919.4 | 94,017 | | | 8781 | 10.09% | 9/26/2014 | 881 | | 862 | | 0 | | 18,828 | 50% | | -14.7 | | -103 | 133 | 1,354 | 847.3 | 93,171 | 383,681 | | 8660 | 9.95% | 10/3/2014 | 901 | | 858 | | 0 | | 18,651 | 49% | | 68.3 | | 478 | | | 926.3 | 95,286 | | | 8645 | 9.92% | 10/10/2014 | 885 | | 885 | | 3 | | 18,356 | 48% | | 45.1 | | 316 | | | 930.1 | 93,594 | | | 9043 | 9.79% | 10/17/2014 | 896 | | 876 | | 0 | | 17,940 | 47% | | 79.4 | | 556 | | | 955.4 | 94,757 | | | 8836 | 9.91% | 10/24/2014 | 937 | | 878 | | 0 | | 17,039 | 45% | | 187.7 | | 1314 | | | 1065.7 | 99,093 | | | 8867 | 9.90% | 10/31/2014 | 929 | | 860 | | 0 | | 17,169 | 45% | | 50.4 | | 353 | 3,017 | 1,888 | 910.4 | 98,247 | 480,976 | | 9162 | 9.39% | 11/7/2014 | 946 | | 860 | | 0 | | 17,705 | 47% | | 9.4 | | 66 | | | 869.4 | 100,045 | | | 9005 | 9.55% | 11/14/2014 | 970 | | 854 | | 0 | | 17,335 | 46% | | 168.9 | | 1182 | | | 1022.9 | 102,583 | | | 9194 | 9.29% | 11/21/2014 | 982 | | 874 | | 0 | | 17,072 | 45% | | 145.6 | | 1019 | | | 1019.6 | 103,852 | | | 9254 | 9.44% | 11/28/2014 | 962 | | 856 | | 0 | | 17,289 | 46% | | 75.0 | | 525 | 2,792 | 2,166 | 931.0 | 101,737 | 408,216 | 1,272,872 | 9245 | 9.26% | 12/5/2014 | 988 | | 838 | | 0 | | 17,750 | 47% | | 84.1 | | 589 | | | 922.1 | 104,486 | | | 8549 | 9.80% | 12/12/2014 | 990 | | 857 | | 0 | | 17,659 | 47% | | 146.0 | | 1022 | | | 1003.0 | 104,698 | | | 9373 | 9.14% | 12/19/2014 | 992 | | 880 | | 0 | | 17,615 | 46% | | 118.3 | | 828 | | | 998.3 | 104,909 | | | 9518 | 9.25% | 12/26/2014 | 972 | | 856 | | 18 | | 18,094 | 48% | | 65.6 | | 459 | 2,898 | 1,798 | 921.6 | 102,794 | 416,888 | | 9614 | 8.90% | 1/2/2015 | 949 | | 789 | | 0 | | 18,845 | 50% | | 52.7 | | 369 | | | 841.7 | 100,362 | | | 8809 | 8.96% | 1/9/2015 | 978 | | 815 | | 0 | | 20,229 | 53% | | -34.7 | | -243 | | | 780.3 | 103,429 | | | 8875 | 9.18% | 1/16/2015 | 979 | | 837 | | 0 | | 20,387 | 54% | | 119.4 | | 836 | | | 956.4 | 103,535 | | | 8851 | 9.46% | 1/23/2015 | 978 | | 842 | | 0 | | 20,631 | 54% | | 101.1 | | 708 | | | 943.1 | 103,429 | | | 9022 | 9.33% | 1/30/2015 | 948 | | 830 | | 0 | | 20,986 | 55% | | 67.3 | | 471 | 2,141 | 1,637 | 897.3 | 100,256 | 511,010 | | 8442 | 9.83% | 2/6/2015 | 961 | | 826 | | 0 | | 21,135 | 56% | | 113.7 | | 796 | | | 939.7 | 101,631 | | | 8282 | 9.97% | 2/13/2015 | 964 | | 852 | | 0 | | 21,084 | 56% | | 119.3 | | 835 | | | 971.3 | 101,948 | | | 8809 | 9.67% | 2/20/2015 | 947 | | 845 | | 0 | | 21,594 | 57% | | 29.1 | | 204 | | | 874.1 | 100,150 | | | 8915 | 9.48% | 2/27/2015 | 931 | | 846 | | 0 | | 21,528 | 57% | | 94.4 | | 661 | 2,496 | 2,031 | 940.4 | 98,458 | 402,188 | 395,814 | 8630 | 9.80% | 3/6/2015 | 944 | | 840 | | 0 | | 21,173 | 56% | | 154.7 | | 1083 | | | 994.7 | 99,833 | | | 8515 | 9.86% | 3/13/2015 | 947 | | 863 | | 0 | | 20,820 | 55% | | 134.4 | | 941 | | | 997.4 | 100,150 | | | 9260 | 9.32% | 3/20/2015 | 953 | | 866 | | 0 | | 21,317 | 56% | | 16.0 | | 112 | | | 882.0 | 100,785 | | | 8619 | 10.05% | 3/27/2015 | 952 | | 869 | | 0 | | 20,547 | 54% | | 193.0 | | 1351 | 3,487 | 1,999 | 1062.0 | 100,679 | 401,447 | 439,423 | 9435 | 9.21% | 4/3/2015 | 936 | | 867 | | 0 | | 20,483 | 54% | | 78.1 | | 547 | | | 945.1 | 98,987 | | | 8610 | 10.07% | 4/10/2015 | 924 | | 885 | | 0 | | 20,645 | 54% | | 15.9 | | 111 | | | 900.9 | 97,718 | | | 8914 | 9.93% | 4/17/2015 | 930 | | 879 | | 53 | | 21,342 | 56% | | 4.4 | | 31 | | | 883.4 | 98,353 | | | 9185 | 9.57% | 4/24/2015 | 921 | | 875 | | 0 | | 20,797 | 55% | | 123.9 | | 867 | | | 998.9 | 97,401 | 392,458 | 409,045 | 8920 | 9.81% | 5/1/2015 | 887 | | 870 | | 0 | | 20,762 | 55% | | 22.0 | | 154 | 1,710 | 1,786 | 892.0 | 93,805 | | | 8785 | 9.90% | 5/8/2015 | 912 | | 891 | | 0 | | 20,299 | 54% | | 87.1 | | 610 | | | 978.1 | 96,449 | | | 9201 | 9.68% | 5/15/2015 | 958 | | 906 | | 0 | | 20,434 | 54% | | 32.7 | | 229 | | | 938.7 | 101,314 | | | 9261 | 9.78% | 5/22/2015 | 969 | | 905 | | 0 | | 20,097 | 53% | | 112.1 | | 785 | | | 1017.1 | 102,477 | | | 9734 | 9.30% | 5/29/2015 | 972 | | 874 | | 0 | | 20,068 | 53% | | 102.1 | | 715 | 2,339 | 1,540 | 976.1 | 102,794 | 496,839 | | 8978 | 9.73% | 6/5/2015 | 992 | | 884 | | 0 | | 20,246 | 53% | | 82.6 | | 578 | | | 966.6 | 104,909 | | | 9600 | 9.21% | 6/12/2015 | 980 | | 912 | | 0 | | 20,718 | 55% | | 0.6 | | 4 | | | 912.6 | 103,640 | | | 9176 | 9.94% | 6/19/2015 | 994 | | 902 | | 0 | | 19,840 | 52% | | 217.4 | | 1522 | | | 1119.4 | 105,121 | | | 9655 | 9.34% | 6/26/2015 | 968 | | 908 | | 0 | | 19,532 | 51% | | 104.0 | | 728 | 2,832 | 1,437 | 1012.0 | 102,371 | | | 9731 | 9.33% | 7/3/2015 | 987 | | 904 | | 0 | | 19,841 | 52% | | 38.9 | | 272 | | | 942.9 | 104,381 | | | 9532 | 9.48% | 7/10/2015 | 984 | | 881 | | 0 | | 19,740 | 52% | | 117.4 | | 822 | | | 998.4 | 104,063 | | | 9404 | 9.37% | 7/17/2015 | 973 | | 897 | | 0 | | 19,559 | 52% | | 101.9 | | 713 | | | 998.9 | 102,900 | | | 9749 | 9.20% | 7/24/2015 | 965 | | 903 | | 0 | | 19,648 | 52% | | 49.3 | | 345 | | | 952.3 | 102,054 | | | 9339 | 9.67% | 7/31/2015 | 961 | | 910 | | 0 | | 19,239 | 51% | | 109.4 | | 766 | 2,918 | | 1019.4 | 101,631 | | | 9687 | 9.39% | 8/7/2015 | 965 | | 898 | | 0 | | 18,529 | 49% | | 168.4 | | 1179 | | | 1066.4 | 102,054 | | | 9686 | 9.27% | 8/14/2015 | 965 | | 908 | | 0 | | 18,561 | 49% | | 52.4 | | 367 | | | 960.4 | 102,054 | | | 9705 | 9.36% | 8/21/2015 | 952 | | 903 | | 0 | | 18,628 | 49% | | 39.4 | | 276 | | | 942.4 | 100,679 | | | 9189 | 9.83% | 8/28/2015 | 948 | | 921 | | 12 | | 19,002 | 50% | | -14.4 | | -101 | 1,721 | | 906.6 | 100,256 | | | 9438 | 9.76% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 23,034 | 17,551 | | 42,857 | 8/30/2015 | | | | 13 wk Avg | 975.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 13 wk Avg | 995.6 | 103,112 | | 13 wk Avg | 9536.6 | | Average 9/5/14 | 951.45 | | 870.75 | | 1.65 | | 19,466 | 51% | | 78.3 | | 548 | | | 2.78 | 5,272,673 | since 9/5/14 | | | Q2 Average | 967.46 | | 839.46 | | 1.38 | | 19,811 | 52% | | 82.8 | | 580 | 103,450 | | 2.71 | 5,407,760 | | | | | Q3 Average | 938.85 | | 876.15 | | 4.08 | | 20,676 | 55% | | 82.8 | | 580 | | | 2.81 | 5,216,838 | | | | | Q4 Average | 971.85 | | 902.38 | | 0.92 | | 19,468 | 51% | | 82.1 | | 575 | | | 102.58% | -135,087 | | | | | Average total | 929.90 | | 862.09 | | 3.22 | | 18,034 | 48% | | 68.5 | | 479 | | 2361.17 | 0.98932 | 55,835 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 7083.52 | | | | | | | We've Ground about 5.27 Byn Bushels of Grain for Ethanol since Sept 1st 2014.. I did CHANGE the conversion factor upping it to 2.78.. which is still lower than the LAST WASDE that went from 2.71 last year to 2.81..AND have NOW ADDED the 2.81 factor for comparison.. which seems pretty high to me...?? So we have argued over that.. but the 2.71 conversion still is what it was last year on Ethanol / WASDE Corn Grind. Although they are using 2.81 this year.. ??? Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M Cheers. |