Average Daily Volume Sales Per Capita

The next chart adjusts the 12-month MA of sales volume for population growth based on the monthly data for Civilian Non-Institutional Population over age 16 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, via the St. Louis FRED repository. What we see here is that gasoline sales on a per-capita basis are 7.7% lower than at the end of the Great Recession. The gallons-per-capita series includes the complete EIA data, but since we're using the 12-month MA, the blue line starts in 1984. We see the double peak in March 1989 (the all-time high) and August 1990. The latest per-capita daily average is 20.8% below the 1989 high but off the -22.2% interim low set in September 2014.

What does this analysis suggest about the state of the economy? From an official standpoint, the Great Recession ended 72 months before the most recent gasoline sales monthly data point. But if we want a simple confirmation that the economy has recovered to full growth, gasoline sales continues to be the wrong place to look.

In addition to improvements in fuel efficiency, the decline in gasoline consumption is attributable in large part to some powerful secular changes in US demographics and cultural in general:

• We have an aging population leaving the workforce, which we clearly see in the sustained contraction in the employment-population ratio.
• There is growing trend toward a portable workplace and the ability to work from home.
• Social media have provided powerful alternatives to face-to-face interaction requiring transportation (Internet apps, games, the ubiquitous mobile phone for talk and texting).
• There has been a general trend in young adults to drive less (related to points two and three above). See this report at the U.S. PIRG website for details.
• The US is experiencing accelerating urban population growth, which reduces the per-capita dependence on gasoline.

As we've continued to observe in this monthly update, we are living in interesting times.