Jon, speaking of weather, NOAA had this to say about the current El Nino, Synopsis: "There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016."

  If that comes to pass, given past moderate to strong El Nino events there will a greater than average chance that winter wheat yields will be above trend and given the poor state of current marketing year exports of wheat and if that doesn't change, ending stocks will grow even more, that is not going to be friendly HRWW prices.

 

One mechanism that has demonstrated both the ability to produce shifts in seasonal climate over the continental U.S. and the potential for inter-seasonal predictability is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using U.S. Climate Division data, USDA-NASS yield data, and the SST Index of Wright (1989), the effects of both El Niño and La Niña Southern Oscillation phases on the central United States are evaluated, and climate and agricultural yield effects during summer and winter periods are compared. The climate analyses presented here (see Data and Methods) show that seasonal precipitation and temperature over parts of the central U.S. can be significantly skewed from climatology, conditional on the state of ENSO-associated sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies.

• A significant tendency to cool and wet conditions over portions of the Missouri River drainage basin is found during El Niño July-August-September (JAS) periods.


• During summer periods consistent with strong La Niña conditions during JASa significant incidence seasonal temperatures in the highest 25% of the historical record is found over Iowa, Illinois and Indiana.


• El Niño conditions during northern winter are consistent with a higher than chance incidence of wet seasonal conditions over winter wheat growing regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.


• Conversely, La Niña winter conditions show a significant tendency to precipitation below the median and in the lowest 25% over these regions.