I was going to start a new thread but will tuck this in here.. if you don't mind.

Last Year dispite a tough start.. we had very timely rains and pulled 125'ish bu dryland corn yields out.  This year.. "here" we are going to be lucky to pull.. probably anything over 75 bu will get bragging rights at the coffee shop.. some have already been chopped.. and a decent amount will be lucky to make 50 bu.. The Sorghum is better.. maybe as good as last year.. maybe a touch better.. but as I noted we've got Sugar Aphids moving in which is a new concern for us.. etc..  The irrigated will be good.

I believe Nation wide.. we've got pockets of Good.. NW Cornbelt this year.. pockets of "Real Tough".. Eastern Cornbelt... and the soybeans in Flory's "Mudhole" area's.. If you plant beans in JULY.. and like.. 5% of the US Crop went in that late..  a "good" yield might be 25 bu.. almost half of what FULL season potential might be..  We raise D/C and late planted beans just FLAT OUT RUN OUT of Calendar.. no matter how much fertility and moisture you throw at them.. you can NOT make up for late plantings..

Flip side.. due to the acerage increase.. we're probably going to have.. "enough."  but I do not buy into the ubber Big Crop coming.. 2.1 myn acres of PP plus probably.. 4 to 5 myn more of Severely LATE planted.. will leave a mark at some point.

Corn demand.. is good.. on feed numbers will be on the rise.. we are feeding a smaller herd LONGER and putting more lbs per animal for the still relatively good livestock markets.

Ethanol demand is robust.. with the near RECORD Gasoline usage.. even at a less then 10% blend.. we've been very close to setting Gasoline usage records this summer.. and thus we're using a lot of oxegenate ethanol to Blend with it.. Furthermore, exports for ethanol are improving.. slowly.. we are seeing an uptrend continue to build.. our plant is running at 90%.. not full bore.. but overall.. the industry is running at a healthy clip.. margins are.. not in an expansion mode.. but.. given what Crude has done.. you can pay the bills with where we are at. 

My weather guy said August was going to be "rough".. back last winter.. for the first time in about 3 years.. I'm going to admit that his forecast was a "miss" for this year.. Still he nailed the 2011 drought.. the expansion in 2012.. and the gradual improvement.. so 3 outta 4.. "ain't bad."  In his defense the emergence of this powerful El Nino.. which "hadn't shown him much" back last winter.. is now.. "impressive" and "about time." 

When you look at the drought monitor.. The Southern Plains drought really started in.. late 2010'ish.. By mid summer of 2011 we were cooking here.. by 2012 the blowoff top "what you got here is 40,000' of DRY AIR.. it's where COLD Fronts go to Die..."  lingered over Illinois and cooked that crop also..

Now.. it's moved.. West.. across the West coast.. is probably centered about the PNW.. and my guy.. STILL looks for it to migrate EAST into Canada and the Northern Plains.. "some time over the next couple of years.."

He's not bulletproof... but..  I'm gonna give him the benefit of the doubt..  Mainly on the AMO/PDO cycle which.. says.. "some time over the next 3 to 5 years.. the Northern Plains are gonna fry..  

We've seen Texas.. Seeing Cali.. the PNW.. and it's headed for the Northern Plains.. that's what I believe.

Now given all these callenges.. we've done pretty well.. built the ethanol industry.. and rebuilt stocks.. however, my gut tells me that the challenges are going to continue...

The Northern Plains have had time to prepare.. fill the bins.. get ready.

I CAN NOT SAY that 100% certaintude that this will happen.. but golly.. "just got the feeling.."

We may have Good Crops before it starts.. like this fall... but prudance says to "prepare."

fwiw.. "I could be wrong."

Full bins going into 2011 was a life saver here... you can hedge into it.. then lift if you want.. like the bible says..

"Seven Good years in preparation for Seven Bad." 

.. just got this feeling.