Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | It's a little bit premature until Pro Farmer announces the final yield estimates later today but two conclusions can be safely made. The eastern cornbelt did suffer significant losses, not completely catastrophic but significant nonetheless. And the western corn belt did very well but Iowa didn't make the 200 that was talked about. The result will probably be close but not quite the 13.7 estimated by the USDA (if you can count 13.3 as being close at -3%).
For argument's sake let's say 2015 production becomes 13.5 or 700,000,000 less than 2014's 14.2. Let's also say that harvested acres comes in at the projected 81.1 million down from last year's 83.1 or 2 million less. It's not really valid but the marginal decline in yield becomes 700,000,000/2,000,000 or 350 bushel per acre, roughly twice the expected ave. national yield.
But that's just playing with numbers. It seems to me that the bigger question is how much corn do we need, at what price and who's going to grow it? Last spring I thought the market could tolerate about 85 million planted acres (78 million harvested) at $3.65 but producers disagreed and planted a good deal more.
I guess I don't know what to think. |
The bigger question.
