Hi Dublin,

Great question...and thanks ND for pitching in.  Like ND said, a head shoulders  patterns are basically washes returning to the scene of the crime...and the more people that see them, the more likely they are bait.  I remember a very expensive lesson post 2008.  I had on CNBC and the there was alot of chatter about the head and shoulder pattern that had been built over a few week period, and what it's projections were.   They were pretty ominous.   Day after day, the talking heads pummeled this shampoo pattern into our heads. What happened?  It failed, and price has never looked back. Triple tops and bottoms fall into the same category, because if you take triple bottom on a weekly or daily chart for instance, and go down in time, you will see the games inside of the triple bottoms or tops. Or if you take a shampoo pattern on anytime frame, and go up in time, you get to a point where it is a triple top/bottom.  There is way more meaning than the textbook "triple" anything that takes place - than what the how to trade textbooks show..  If you get all hung up triple tops, you will really miss what is really going on. 

There is often a true level in a pivot.  I do not know how the whales decide on this level, or it's purely a function of energy in the market.  This level usually ends up being the level where the trap is set.  So in this bean example from earlier in the year, the first sign that there was some sellers was the long tailed bar.  Price returns to that level twice more..creating a shelf.  Now you are bullish, and a BO player. You want to get long,...where are you going to do that?  Obviously above that level right.  Add to that you have had three attempt to go higher and failed, and you got short someplace...Where you going to have your stop....?  Above the highs as well right?  But the whales who are in control, are working their position off, and have gotten short.  So when it pulls back, and find buyers, they help a little bit, buying to support the market...then harder showing a fast momentum move upwards into new highs!!  Party time!  New monthly highs for the month/year.  Breakout buyers are long now, and the shorts are gone.  So essentially the market is long with Breakout Buyers, and the whales have all the short positions.  The sell as much as they can, then start pushing it lower,..It doesn't take long for price to come back down below the true level.  This essentially the same as what I asked a couple weeks ago in the "What Happens Next" presentation.  If you want to know if something was for real or if it was bait, just wait to see what happens afterwards. If it's bait, it is doomed from the beginning. If its for real, and the whales are on its side, they won't allow it to comeback.

Here's the earlier highs for the year in beans.  A little different look but again, there's a true level which the trap is set on, and whales are willing sellers above.

Here's two more...Smaller, but they are essentially the same.  The first move is bait, and if it feels safe to get short using a cheap stop, well, it probably isn't.  Wait for somebody to get hurt, the books are clean, then take the position.  If you get rolled, you have read the market wrong.  If you are right, and have the whale by the tail, as long as you don't cheap out your stop, he will make sure you remain safe.

Same sequence can happen on the lows.  Here is the lows from the rally.  Again, price finds a true level, where you can see somebody is there picking it up. Price rallies back up then, gets crushed, right back into the buyers ...and again, they are there.  Again, if you are bullish, you probably hare willing to buy this formation,...you have two weeks to do it...

So what happens?  Price rallies back up, where an OSB forms, where somebody has decided it time to start pushing.  They push it down, again bag the weak longs,  the BO short got short because well quintuple bottoms always hold and if it doesn't this thing is going so lower.  And not only did they push it down, but held it down, giving it one more push lower, then they start pushing...It doesn't take long for it to become clear.  That was a wash.  The "safe" feeling formation earlier was the whales setting the trap while accumulating.  They are long, everybody else is short or flat...and now everybody else is chasing the market, or forced to cover.  These price movements are not accidental, they are orchestrated and intentional.  That is why from a trader's perspective, I want somebody to get hurt, and I am always skeptical of the first move.  If it feels safe, it likely isn't...