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Soybeans
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jpartner
Posted 8/19/2015 15:41 (#4741966 - in reply to #4741841)
Subject: RE: Soybeans


marbro1 - 8/19/2015 12:49 Jpartner, what would you think beans would be priced if we wouldn't have had the major hiccups this spring/summer getting them planted and/or the prevent plant? Not going to hold this number against you and realize its strictly a guess, but curious what price that would be.

Marbro1,

I wanted to expand a bit on my comment, because I am guessing you are thinking he has lost it.  So, let's look back at the rallies and how "predictable" their extents were in hindsight.

Here is the 2009 rally.  I am not using median lines this time, but this tool is essentially the same. So, when price rallied in the winter of 2009 pulled back and "bumped" then went vertical, it did two thing.  First it roughly projected balance, and secondly, it stored energy for the pullback.  When price pullback in the summer of 2009, it "bumped" again off balance, then went on to "C".  So the energy stored in the rally was released to the downside.

The pullback of the 2009 rally.  Price bumped three times off a trendline that I am sure the media was talking about, finally turning the corner, zooming the "trendline" turned balance, and it simply then is a measurement of energy stored = energy released.

This rally again, roughly projected balance, then rallied...So when it pulled back, it is simply energy stored and energy released

The next rally was supplied energy by the prior pullback.  Again price roughly projeted balance forward, bumped off it, then went on to make the all time highs.

Same thing with this rally.  It roughly projected balance, then stretched to the all time highs storing energy.  So when it came back, we have a pretty good idea where its gonna land....only this time, the major formation is in control.  So just like these smaller swings have their "bump" and stretch, the bigger one has its day too, and that is why we are here today, it is the release of stored energy from each of those pivots -the "good" times.

So, where do we go from here.... In 2009 we got the three little bumps off the projected center.  Aren't the most recent pivots effectively the bigger cousins that are projecting time and price forward, just like their little cousins?  You bet they are. 

Hope that clarifies things a bit..



Edited by jpartner 8/19/2015 15:45
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