HI KevinM,

Effectively what this formation is - is selling the wash. It's the bagging of the fake structural level that the BO players put their buy stops behind seeing the HL, and those who got short have their stops sitting there too thinking its a safe place.  Nothing is farther from the truth.  One of the tells of this is that fast action into the highs.  Another possible variation of this would be trade above  the minor structural level that is backed by a zoom zone on a reaction type pullback.  Trading to 5.25 would be the same thing from here, if we do not make new lows first.  Making new  lows would change the formation completely. The tells of the two patterns and results are almost identical.  I look for these weekly on the intraday charts.  It's an awesome pattern to trade if you can catch it, the downside of them is that there rarely is an affordable stop so you gotta be prepared to be run over if you are wrong.  To complete the pattern, it really needs to make new lows.  If it doesn't again, it's a failed structural level, and it becomes vulnerable. IMHO, a failure to make new lows gives us a run at my preferred pricing for 2016 crop above 5.25, and this move down has supplied enough energy to get there.  We just need another failure, which doesn't look likely at this point.   If its gonna stick, low 3.60's will be the spot, IMHO.

We will snap back from wherever it ends - bumper crop or not.  Remember last year we rallied over a buck from the lows in the face of the largest crop in history - even during harvest.  Each of those years had their own context.  Some made new lows, and were followed by other new lows.  Some were the final straw in a pullback in  a uptrend. IMHO, this one should give us a longer term low, if it can get below that 2.90.  It has the energy to do it, and after that is struck, it will be a different market.  New highs won't be around the corner, but at least the downtrend would be over for a while.

Take Care