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| I'm not saying we have a complete disaster in the making just that the simple math makes it very hard to get the national yield above 43.5. Just from your example; if a field of flood damaged beans yield 40 and had a APH in the low 60's that's a 35% reduction. In my neighborhood, which seems to be repeated all over the Eastern belt, the normal high yielding areas of the field (75 bpa and up) are the ones that have been hit the hardest. Now we have the added problem that in order to maintain that potential on a National basis, the Eastern belt needs to dry out (which it doesn't appear to do this week anyway) and the Western belt must receive timely late July/August rainfall to maintain record yield potential. What kind of odds do we have of both of those scenarios playing out at the same time? 1 in 4 may be optimistic. | |
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S/D projections for Kicks and Giggles..
