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S/D projections for Kicks and Giggles..
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JonSCKs
Posted 7/10/2015 14:20 (#4672051)
Subject: S/D projections for Kicks and Giggles..


I updated my WASDE file.. and for kicks and giggles added my projections to it.. for next year.. Don't shoot me.. just guessing where the Puck is going.. (W Gretzke.. "Doesn't matter where it is.. it's where it's going that matters..")  My crop prospects are a little higher.. we're out of the drought now.. planted a few more acres than intended.. beanies.. etc. so.. fwiw.. "Wrong.. but at least I'm offering a stab at it.."  Make a credible case and I'll change and re run it..

More or less trying to figure out how I differ from the rest of ya'll..

Wheaties.. ugh.. my weather guru is playing out.. missed on the dryness in Northern Plains but NW US and Western Canadian prairies is "on target"  Does that dryness move East next year?!?  hmmm...

  Jul-15     
                     
WASDE - 535 - 11        
                     
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use  1/        
                     
 2012/132013/14 Est. 2014/15 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.    2015/16 Proj.   
  JulJul   Jon SCKs  
   Million Acres        
Area Planted55.356.256.856.1   56.1 0 
Area Harvested 48.845.346.448.5   48 -0.5 
   Bushels        
Yield per Harvested Acre46.247.143.744.3   44.3 0 
   Million Bushels        
Beginning Stocks743718590753   753 0
Production2252213520262148   2126.4 -22
Imports123169144130   125 -5
  Supply, Total3118302127603031   3004.4 -27
Food945955960967   969 2
Seed73778172   74 2
Feed and Residual370223111200   205 5
  Domestic, Total1388125511521239   1248 9
Exports10121176855950   945 -5
  Use, Total2400243120072189   2193 4
Ending Stocks718590753842   811 -31
  CCC Inventory0000   0 0
  Free Stocks718590753842   811 -31
     Outstanding Loans884545   45 0
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)  2/7.776.875.994.75 - 5.75   5.25 - 6.25  

 

Corn.. Here's where I think the Trade MISSED buying enough acres this year...I'm betting that the FSA numbers come up about 1.9 myn less than today's numbers on the flood damage and pp Tx.. Mizzou etc..  I'm probably too high on 2015 yield.. but..??  Took it off on acres.. so...???

The market NEEDS to ADD about 3 myn acres for next year... it's gonna take higher prices to do that.

 2012/132013/142014/15 Est2015/16 Proj. 15/1616/17 
CORN     Jon SCKsJon SCKschange
  OctoberNovember    
   Million Acres     
Area Planted97.395.490.688.9 87            903.0
Area Harvested87.487.583.181.1 79.17            81.92.7
         
Yield per Harvested Acre123.1158.1171166.8 167           1681.0
         
Beginning Stocks98982112321779            1779           1285-493.6
Production10755138291421613530 1322113759537.8
Imports160362725 25               3510.0
    Supply, Total11904146861547415334 150251508054.2
Feed and Residual4315503453005275 5300           535050.0
Food, Seed & Industrial 2/6038650365466585 6590           661525.0
   Ethanol & by-products 3/4641513452005225 5245527530.0
    Domestic, Total10353115371184611860 11890         1196575.0
Exports730191718501875 185018500.0
    Use, Total11083134541369613735 137401381575.0
Ending Stocks821123217791599 12851265-20.8
    CCC Inventory0000                  00.0
    Free Stocks821123217791599 12851265-20.8
       Outstanding Loans3276230230    
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)  4/6.894.463.60-3.803.45 - 4.05 3.50 - 4.50 4.00 - 5.50 
         

 

Beanies..  No doubt acres will be going down as the FSA numbers are released in August.. the question is how much?  I give a little credit to the bean rally starting soon enough to switch some d/c acres back from other options.. aka Sorghum as happened here.  Corn market will try to rob soybeans acres for next year.

 Jul-15    
  WASDE - 535 - 15   
             
  U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure)  1/   
             
SOYBEANS2012/132013/142014/15 Est.2015/16 Proj.  2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj.
      Jon SCKsJon SCKs
FillerFillerFillerFillerFiller     
   Million Acres      
Area Planted77.276.883.785.1  8482-2
Area Harvested76.176.383.184.4  83.881.8-2.0
Filler  Bushels      
Yield per Harvested Acre404447.846  4547.52.5
   Million Bushels      
Beginning Stocks16914192255  2552649
Production3042335839693885  37713886115
Imports41723030  35383
    Supply, Total3252357040914170  40614188127
Crushings1689173418301840  1842186523
Exports1317164718251775  18251820-5
Seed89979992  92920
Residual1608238  3837-1
    Use, Total3111347838363745  3797381417
Ending Stocks14192255425  264374110
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)  2/14.41310.058.50 - 10.00  9.25 - 12.008.50 - 12.00
Total        
             

Remember this is just the initial stab in the dark.. got a whole nother month to argue over what the next one will be.. Don't shoot me.. make a case and I'll update.

So Sat.. what do the funds do to this?

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