I updated my WASDE file.. and for kicks and giggles added my projections to it.. for next year.. Don't shoot me.. just guessing where the Puck is going.. (W Gretzke.. "Doesn't matter where it is.. it's where it's going that matters..") My crop prospects are a little higher.. we're out of the drought now.. planted a few more acres than intended.. beanies.. etc. so.. fwiw.. "Wrong.. but at least I'm offering a stab at it.." Make a credible case and I'll change and re run it.. More or less trying to figure out how I differ from the rest of ya'll.. Wheaties.. ugh.. my weather guru is playing out.. missed on the dryness in Northern Plains but NW US and Western Canadian prairies is "on target" Does that dryness move East next year?!? hmmm... | | Jul-15 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | WASDE - 535 - 11 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2012/13 | 2013/14 Est. | 2014/15 Proj. | 2015/16 Proj. | | | | 2015/16 Proj. | | | | | Jul | Jul | | | | Jon SCKs | | | | | | Million Acres | | | | | | | | | Area Planted | 55.3 | 56.2 | 56.8 | 56.1 | | | | 56.1 | | 0 | | Area Harvested | 48.8 | 45.3 | 46.4 | 48.5 | | | | 48 | | -0.5 | | | | | Bushels | | | | | | | | | Yield per Harvested Acre | 46.2 | 47.1 | 43.7 | 44.3 | | | | 44.3 | | 0 | | | | | Million Bushels | | | | | | | | | Beginning Stocks | 743 | 718 | 590 | 753 | | | | 753 | | 0 | Production | 2252 | 2135 | 2026 | 2148 | | | | 2126.4 | | -22 | Imports | 123 | 169 | 144 | 130 | | | | 125 | | -5 | Supply, Total | 3118 | 3021 | 2760 | 3031 | | | | 3004.4 | | -27 | Food | 945 | 955 | 960 | 967 | | | | 969 | | 2 | Seed | 73 | 77 | 81 | 72 | | | | 74 | | 2 | Feed and Residual | 370 | 223 | 111 | 200 | | | | 205 | | 5 | Domestic, Total | 1388 | 1255 | 1152 | 1239 | | | | 1248 | | 9 | Exports | 1012 | 1176 | 855 | 950 | | | | 945 | | -5 | Use, Total | 2400 | 2431 | 2007 | 2189 | | | | 2193 | | 4 | Ending Stocks | 718 | 590 | 753 | 842 | | | | 811 | | -31 | CCC Inventory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | 0 | | 0 | Free Stocks | 718 | 590 | 753 | 842 | | | | 811 | | -31 | Outstanding Loans | 8 | 8 | 45 | 45 | | | | 45 | | 0 | Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ | 7.77 | 6.87 | 5.99 | 4.75 - 5.75 | | | | 5.25 - 6.25 | | |
Corn.. Here's where I think the Trade MISSED buying enough acres this year...I'm betting that the FSA numbers come up about 1.9 myn less than today's numbers on the flood damage and pp Tx.. Mizzou etc.. I'm probably too high on 2015 yield.. but..?? Took it off on acres.. so...??? The market NEEDS to ADD about 3 myn acres for next year... it's gonna take higher prices to do that. | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 Est | 2015/16 Proj. | | 15/16 | 16/17 | | CORN | | | | | | Jon SCKs | Jon SCKs | change | | | October | November | | | | | | | | Million Acres | | | | | | Area Planted | 97.3 | 95.4 | 90.6 | 88.9 | | 87 | 90 | 3.0 | Area Harvested | 87.4 | 87.5 | 83.1 | 81.1 | | 79.17 | 81.9 | 2.7 | | | | | | | | | | Yield per Harvested Acre | 123.1 | 158.1 | 171 | 166.8 | | 167 | 168 | 1.0 | | | | | | | | | | Beginning Stocks | 989 | 821 | 1232 | 1779 | | 1779 | 1285 | -493.6 | Production | 10755 | 13829 | 14216 | 13530 | | 13221 | 13759 | 537.8 | Imports | 160 | 36 | 27 | 25 | | 25 | 35 | 10.0 | Supply, Total | 11904 | 14686 | 15474 | 15334 | | 15025 | 15080 | 54.2 | Feed and Residual | 4315 | 5034 | 5300 | 5275 | | 5300 | 5350 | 50.0 | Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ | 6038 | 6503 | 6546 | 6585 | | 6590 | 6615 | 25.0 | Ethanol & by-products 3/ | 4641 | 5134 | 5200 | 5225 | | 5245 | 5275 | 30.0 | Domestic, Total | 10353 | 11537 | 11846 | 11860 | | 11890 | 11965 | 75.0 | Exports | 730 | 1917 | 1850 | 1875 | | 1850 | 1850 | 0.0 | Use, Total | 11083 | 13454 | 13696 | 13735 | | 13740 | 13815 | 75.0 | Ending Stocks | 821 | 1232 | 1779 | 1599 | | 1285 | 1265 | -20.8 | CCC Inventory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 0 | 0.0 | Free Stocks | 821 | 1232 | 1779 | 1599 | | 1285 | 1265 | -20.8 | Outstanding Loans | 32 | 76 | 230 | 230 | | | | | Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/ | 6.89 | 4.46 | 3.60-3.80 | 3.45 - 4.05 | | 3.50 - 4.50 | 4.00 - 5.50 | | | | | | | | | | |
Beanies.. No doubt acres will be going down as the FSA numbers are released in August.. the question is how much? I give a little credit to the bean rally starting soon enough to switch some d/c acres back from other options.. aka Sorghum as happened here. Corn market will try to rob soybeans acres for next year. | Jul-15 | | | | | | | WASDE - 535 - 15 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | SOYBEANS | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 Est. | 2015/16 Proj. | | | 2015/16 Proj. | 2015/16 Proj. | | | | | | | Jon SCKs | Jon SCKs | Filler | Filler | Filler | Filler | Filler | | | | | | | | | Million Acres | | | | | | | Area Planted | 77.2 | 76.8 | 83.7 | 85.1 | | | 84 | 82 | -2 | Area Harvested | 76.1 | 76.3 | 83.1 | 84.4 | | | 83.8 | 81.8 | -2.0 | Filler | | | Bushels | | | | | | | Yield per Harvested Acre | 40 | 44 | 47.8 | 46 | | | 45 | 47.5 | 2.5 | | | | Million Bushels | | | | | | | Beginning Stocks | 169 | 141 | 92 | 255 | | | 255 | 264 | 9 | Production | 3042 | 3358 | 3969 | 3885 | | | 3771 | 3886 | 115 | Imports | 41 | 72 | 30 | 30 | | | 35 | 38 | 3 | Supply, Total | 3252 | 3570 | 4091 | 4170 | | | 4061 | 4188 | 127 | Crushings | 1689 | 1734 | 1830 | 1840 | | | 1842 | 1865 | 23 | Exports | 1317 | 1647 | 1825 | 1775 | | | 1825 | 1820 | -5 | Seed | 89 | 97 | 99 | 92 | | | 92 | 92 | 0 | Residual | 16 | 0 | 82 | 38 | | | 38 | 37 | -1 | Use, Total | 3111 | 3478 | 3836 | 3745 | | | 3797 | 3814 | 17 | Ending Stocks | 141 | 92 | 255 | 425 | | | 264 | 374 | 110 | Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ | 14.4 | 13 | 10.05 | 8.50 - 10.00 | | | 9.25 - 12.00 | 8.50 - 12.00 | Total | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Remember this is just the initial stab in the dark.. got a whole nother month to argue over what the next one will be.. Don't shoot me.. make a case and I'll update. So Sat.. what do the funds do to this? |