|
Buxton ND | Our wheat exports are poor, they've been poor for MONTHS. It started alittle over a year ago with weather troubles down south. Wheat rallied nearly $2 (took us out of the world market) Dollar started to rally mid summer, we rallied wheat in mid December (AGAIN taking us out of the world wheat market) as the dollar really rallied. Now the dollar has weakened, wheat has really weakened, IT SHOULD HELP,,,,,,,,,,,,, the trouble is Russia seems to be having a fire sale at give are take $1 under our prices.
Basis has been weakening,,, pretty sure the reason is just above. We do not have JACK for new crop sales booked and I'm think some of the sales on the old book will get rolled forward into the 2015-16 marketing year.
We have those pushing the poor crop down south right now and have been for awhile. At this point in time THE TRADERS DO NOT CARE***** as their sitting all time record net short,,, all wheat's combined. KE is a all time record net short by roughly 2X. This net selling has been going on since Christmas***** not alot different then corn.
I DO NOT KNOW what its going to take to change this trend, but until the spec fund money changes their tune,,, our markets or not going anywhere. I've made a small bet going long corn, well its not working to hot and down .08 right now. IF I can get out with a small profit I'll be gone.....
Its been over 2 years since I started making the comment "tighten your belts and don't spend a dime til we see how these markets shake out" Still looks like these markets are being fully shaken by the bears***** | |
|
US Dollar and Wheat exports
